Study: Shipping is Off Track for 2030 Emissions Goals
The shipping industry will likely miss its 2030 targets for vessels running on alternative fuels, according to a new study from the UCL Energy Institute, mainly due to the regulatory uncertainties surrounding the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF).
According to the fifth edition of 'Climate action in shipping: Progress towards shipping's 2030 breakthrough', the industry is highly unlikely to meet targets of having zero-emission fuels accounting for 5-10 percent of total fuel usage, the goal set in the 2023 IMO Greenhouse Gas Strategy. The ultimate goal is to ensure the shipping industry becomes net-zero by 2050, and the 2030 target was conceived as an enabler to accelerate early progress.
The 2030 targets meant that some 600-1,200 large ships with a capacity of at least 15,000 TEU (or equivalent) would be running on scalable zero-emissions fuels (SZEF). However, owing to headwinds like economic and political upheaval, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, energy security and supply chain concerns, and the regulatory uncertainty caused by the failure to adopt the NZF, the world is lagging behind on its alternative fuel goals. In 2025, the milestone of having roughly 100 15,000-TEU-equivalent ships running on SZEF was not met.
The UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition report shows that while the world is falling behind on its goals, there have been notable achievements across the five key 'levers' being used to assess the industry's progress - namely technology and supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society.
Supply of alternative fuels and technologies has, for instance, been progressing. The number of ports offering methanol bunkering now stands at 29, up from 19 a year ago. The world has also witnessed sea trials of the first large ammonia-fueled vessels with two-stroke engines being successfully completed, as well as the building of smaller ammonia-fueled supply vessels and tugboats fitted with four-stroke engines. The industry has also recorded its first ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering operation.
The report shows that the long-anticipated wave of methanol-capable container ship deliveries finally landed in 2025, tripling methanol-capable in-service tonnage from 2.3 million to 7.7 million gross tonnage (GT) and pushing the SZEF-capable share of the active fleet from 0.41 percent to 0.77 percent. This was the largest single-year capability gain on record, delivered through 56 newbuilds totaling 5.4 million GT. However, the order book regressed, with SZEF-capable orders falling from 9.5 percent to 5.7 percent of total GT orders.
On finance, the progress has been mixed: issuances of shipping-specific sustainable debt have plateaued. In 2025, approximately $3 billion was issued to shipping-related entities through green loans, green bonds, sustainability-linked loans, and transition instruments, down from $3.4 billion in 2024.
For the industry, the controversies surrounding the NZF have become one of the major roadblocks towards the 2030 goals, with the U.S. being among its staunchest opponents. The report reckons that with the NZF remaining in limbo, the policy clarity required for the 2030 goal is a major obstacle.
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“The failure to adopt the NZF was the single most transition-regressive event we've seen in the five years this report has been running,” said Pinar Langer, research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute.
She added that reversing this momentum loss and securing regulatory certainty is one of the most important next steps to give shipowners the confidence to order zero-emission vessels, lenders the incentive to invest in them, and charterers the motivation to pay for low-carbon shipping.
