Panama Canal Pushes Back Planned Draft Cut for Big Ships

For the second time in a matter of weeks, the Panama Canal Authority is delaying a planned reduction in the maximum draft for the largest vessel, which transits through the newer Neopanamax Locks. The authority reports the decision is based on its latest review of water levels in Gatun Lake and the weather projections.

The Panama Canal Authority is working to manage what is expected to be a severe drought caused by a Super El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific. After reporting that the El Niño “is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on September 3 that there was an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent” that El Niño will persist through to February 2027.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.”

The WMO said that, fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.

The online data from the Panama Canal, however, shows that water levels in Gatun Lake have remained fairly consistent at 84 feet after having dipped just below that level at the end of August. The current forecast is showing a projected slight increase by as much as 0.4 feet into October before the decline is projected to resume. Typically, water levels rise in the fall with the onset of the rainy season in Panama.

The Neopanamax Locks had been scheduled to reduce the maximum draft as of the beginning of September to 14.48 meters (47.5 feet), but the authority previously reported that it was delaying the effective date to October 1. On September 4, it reported the Neopanamax Locks would continue with the current 14.63-meter (48-foot) maximum draft, not imposing the 0.5-foot reduction at the beginning of October.

Delaying the reduction on the maximum draft is important, especially to the big containerships and gas carriers. There have already been reports of some gas carriers diverting around South America and record-high auction prices paid by two gas carriers to jump the wait for transit. During the 2023-2024 drought, some container vessels were required to reduce their loads by transshipping boxes across the isthmus on the railroad.

The Panama Canal, however, was reducing the number of daily slots at the Panamax Locks to nine as of September 3. Transits at the older Panamax Locks were also lowered to 25 and are scheduled to be lowered to 23 as of September 15. The Panama Canal Authority used a similar tactic of balancing the draft and number of transits to manage water levels during the 2023 drought.

In addition, there appears to be an easing of some of the waiting times, with the average wait for a northbound transit at 8.8 days for non-booked vessels. The Panama Canal Authority has strongly advised ships to take advantage of the reservation system to ensure their transits. Currently, there are only four non-booked vessels waiting, three being in the Neopanamax category. There were a total of 85 ships with reservations waiting as of September 3.

The Panama Canal Authority emphasizes that it remains a dynamic situation that it is closely monitoring. Its goal is to maintain reliable, predictable, and efficient service while committing to provide updates on any future changes that may affect vessel draft requirements.