September to Be Biggest Month for US Imports with Expected Declines Delayed
The retail trade association has once again revised its outlook for U.S. container import volumes, illustrating one of the most unpredictable years ever reported. After forecasting expected declines, the National Retail Federation is now forecasting September to be the highest volume month of the year, and it now sees a slight overall increase for 2026 versus 2025.
“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand.”
The NRF’s Global Port tracker is now forecasting total volumes of 2.31 million TEU for September at the main U.S. container ports. That is up from earlier forecasts as low as 2 million TEU for the month and a forecast last month of 2.16 million TEU for September.
It had projected that May’s volume of 2.24 million TEU would be the highest monthly volume, but July exceeded that at 2.3 million TEU. It believes that when the final tally for August is completed, it will be at approximately 2.29 million TEU, making it the third busiest month of the year.
The NRF points to vessel delays due to bad weather in Asia and the typhoons that impacted operations at China's main ports. It also believes carriers are rerouting due to concerns about delays at the Panama Canal as the restrictions mount due to the drought. The NRF says import volumes remained strong despite the challenges ranging from tariff increases, inflation, and high gas prices, all of which it expected would slow consumer spending.
The Port of Los Angeles also highlighted three months of strong volumes, saying between June and August a total of 2.9 million TEU moved across its docks. Volume for August at the Port of Los Angeles was six percent above the five-year average, with the port handling 955,907 TEU.
Gene Seroka, Executive Director for the Port of Los Angeles, also noted that September is shaping up to be another strong month. He said the port has good momentum going into the final months of the year.
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The NRF, however, still expects a slowdown is coming. They now project that October’s volume will drop more than 2.1 percent but still be up 1.7 percent from last year. It forecasts November and December will level off at around 2 million TEU per month. It is also forecast to carry over into January 2027, with a projected volume of 2.07 million TEU, which would be down one percent versus January 2026.
After foreseeing multiple challenges and expecting that imports would slow, the NRF now projects 2026 will actually be up one percent over 2025, reaching a total of 25.7 million TEU.
