Maersk Increases Outlook to Strong Profits Based on Rate Surge and Volumes
Maersk, in a reversal of fortune, issued a strong upgrade for its 2026 outlook, increasing guidance to a solid profit for the year. Earlier in the year, Maersk had issued a far more cautious outlook for 2026, speaking more of cost saving and head cuts at headquarters in a weak market and warning of a loss of up to $1.5 billion (EBIT).
The company is now citing a “recent sustained increase in spot market rates,” as well as continued strong demand in the container market. In particular, it cites the strong demand coming from the Far East.
The new forecast issued late on Monday, June 29, calls for an increase of more than $1 billion between the previous top of the range for EBIT profits and the bottom of the new forecast. Maersk went from projecting a loss of as much as $1.5 billion to a profit of $1 billion to a new range of between $2 and $4 billion in profits (EBIT). It also cut its forecast for negative cash flow in half from $3 billion to $1.5 billion.
The company is basing these projections on an increased outlook for container volumes. It pushed the growth forecast for volumes to the top of its previous range of 2 to 4 percent, saying it will now be about 4 percent for the year.
Well-known industry analyst Jars Jensen commented that the new forecast implies that rates are now coming in some $300 to $350 per FFE higher than expected less than two months ago when Maersk confirmed its lower forecasts for the year. He notes that much of this is driven by an expectation for a stronger second half of the year, with all the increases based on the forecast between Q2 and Q4. Maersk reported Q1 on May 7 and reconfirmed its previous outlook, which called for a more challenging year.
Maersk had earlier spoken of expectations of overcapacity in container shipping and scenarios of a gradual Red Sea reopening in 2026. However, the disruptions from the Middle East have resulted in continued constraints on capacity as carriers are still avoiding Red Sea routes and have ships trapped in the Persian Gulf. The longer routing between Asia and Europe or the United States’ East Coast has created capacity constraints, reflected especially in spot rates.
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Observers also note that Donald Trump has promised a new round of tariffs due to start in July. He has also said there would be more tariffs coming on industrial goods. Groups such as the National Retail Federation reported importers, especially in the United States, were advancing shipments, creating an earlier than normal anticipated peak season. Typically, the container carriers see a peak season starting in July and continuing into the fall as retailers stock up for holiday season sales.
Stock investors were initially encouraged by the increased outlook from Maersk, driving the stock price up more than 5 percent this morning. The price of the shares, however, quickly eroded to close lower for the day. Other carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and COSCO, however, saw strong share price gains today as investors read Maersk’s report as a positive sign for the industry.