Greek Tanker Sails for the U.S. with First Russian Diesel Cargo
The first Russian cargo of diesel fuel exported to the United States got underway on Friday, October 23, according to the Kremlin and independent sources. It appears to be the first of at least three cargoes that have been loaded for the U.S., while other Russian exports have also resumed to traditional customers.
Reuters broke the news using data from Kpler, which has been confirmed by other sources and a comment by the Kremlin spokesperson, although the vessel is now not revealing its destination. The market intelligence firm Energy Aspects, Reuters reports, showed that the Malta-flagged product tanker Agioi Fanendes (50,000 dwt) loaded 298,000 barrels of diesel (approximately 40,000 metric tons). Tracking data confirmed the vessel sailed from Primorsk and is currently in the Baltic.
The vessel, which was built in 2019 and is managed by Eastern Mediterranean Maritime of Greece, was reportedly briefly showing New York as its destination on its AIS transmission. The signal has, however, been changed to “for orders,” raising speculation that the final paperwork has not been resolved or the vessel is trying to attract less attention.
Russian officials earlier in the week indicated the shipments were imminent, saying the last of the paperwork was being completed. Reports said one of the issues is payments due to the sanctions on Russia. The U.S. Treasury reportedly has had to find ways around the limitations.
The reporting sources vary on the likely arrival date, with reports varying between November 7 and 10. The Kremlin only said the cargo had departed and did not provide details. It has also led to speculation over the potential buyer for the cargo.
Timing suggests that it will not reach the United States before Election Day (November 3), with the vital midterm voting set to decide control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Donald Trump is aggressively campaigning in the closing days before the election, trying to maintain the Republican majorities and insisting prices for key commodities, including diesel, are failing.
Analysts continue to highlight concerns for the U.S. economy as the price of diesel skyrocketed to an average of over $6 per gallon, and many places report prices at $7 or above. They point out that diesel is central to the economy, used on farms, in trucking, and many other areas. Trump asserted in a social media posting, “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of oil prior to the U.S. midterm election. They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else, because more oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the conflict.”
The first diesel shipment is about seven percent of the roughly four million barrels per day the U.S. consumes, with many analysts calling it insignificant to the market.
If the product tanker does make its delivery to New York, it would be the first Russian fuel cargo landed in more than three years. President Joe Biden banned Russian imports in 2022. The Trump administration issued a six-month waiver only for diesel, while Donald Trump used an executive order to suspend Congress-imposed tariffs.
Trump had announced earlier in the month that his deal with Russia called for an immediate 300,000 metric tons, which would equate to about 2.25 million barrels. He said exports would increase to 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.”
Market observers at TankerTrackers.com are reporting today that it “identified three tankers carrying Russian diesel to the United States. All three loaded at petroleum berths in Russia and are declaring the USA as their destination. Diesel is the only known hydrocarbon that the US OFAC currently permits imports of from.”
LSEG and Kpler, in their data, show Russia has broadly resumed exports after an approximately six-week ban due to the impact of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries. They are reporting that cargoes have departed for Turkey and Brazil. Additional cargoes have been loaded in Primorsk, but the vessels' AIS transmissions only show waypoints, such as Gibraltar and Port Said.
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The Russian producer Novak has indicated that, without further strikes, it would be able to resume full production by the end of the year. It is expected to be able to resume diesel exports at a rate of 3 to 3.5 million tons per month.
