Diego Garcia Stock Rises While It Fights Takeover Challenge
Recent reports that US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle is looking for alternative ports from which to support the Fifth Fleet operating in the Middle East region have brought to the fore once again the value of Diego Garcia in the strategic lay-down of US forces. Bahrain, a place called home for decades, is in current circumstances unusable, and whatever the political will for US forces to remain post the conflict, the new dominance on the battlefield of drones and hypersonic missiles may make the Naval Support Activity Bahrain tactically untenable.
The current value of Diego Garcia seems endorsed by the force presence spotted recently on the island and in the lagoon. On August 25, @MT_Anderson spotted four KC-135 Tankers, a P-8A maritime surveillance aircraft, three probable C-17 transport aircraft, and six probable F-15 fighters on the South Ramp apron. In the lagoon were an Arleigh Burke destroyer, a Kaiser Class Oiler, a cargo vessel, and a Tanker Security Program, with ships from the Maritime Pre-positioning Ship Squadron 2 (MPSRON-2) probably also present but hidden by cloud.
A further indication that the U.S. has near-term plans for the base came last week when it was reported the training ship Empire State has been called up by the Maritime Administration. Its mission has not been disclosed, but the reports are that the ship, which is designed to house 600 cadets and teachers or up to 1,000 during a humanitarian crisis, will be dispatched to Diego Garcia. It will take a month or more for the ship to make its way to the outpost, and MARAD has reportedly said the mission is expected to last for up to 170 days.
Diego Garcia is not the perfect alternative to Bahrain: it is a long way from where ships need to be deployed operationally, and its recreational value for a run ashore and giving sailors a break is probably restricted to literally going for a run ashore. But it does have the value that politically, American use of Diego Garcia has been far less contentious than use of a port almost anywhere else outside the Continental United States – that is, if the current wrangling over the future status of the British-owned archipelago can be solved.
For the moment, the lease-back deal agreed between the UK and Mauritius is suspended, as the necessary legislation failed to pass in the British Houses of Parliament earlier this year, and the Trump administration declined to give its consent to the deal, as is required under international law if the US-UK 1965 Treaty is to be amended. The British Foreign Secretary Ed Milliband and his National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell, freshly confirmed by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, strongly approve of the deal, and want to press ahead. But they face major obstacles.
The Trump administration is unlikely to change its mind and grant Ed Milliband any favors, given his enthusiasm for Net Zero, ending North Sea oil and gas exploration, intervening in Israeli politics, plus his general inclination to align British national interests with those of the Global South. The Trump administration is also concerned about British defense spending, and the UK government has now admitted the substantial cost of the deal will be a charge on the UK defense budget for a facility which is currently cost-free.
The necessary legislation failed to pass through the Houses of Parliament at the last attempt, and cross-party opposition remains strong, suggesting that Andy Burnham, with many bigger problems to solve, may not want to expend political capital making a second attempt.
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A third strong obstacle is now in place. The latest UK-Mauritius deal was made without consultation with the Chagos Islanders who were expelled from the islands in the 1970s, compounding the original sin of doing an imperialist deal without consulting native inhabitants. There is a strong sense in the UK that the rights of the Chagos Islanders should not be ignored once again, which is what would occur if the Chagos Islanders were transferred without their consent to the sovereignty of Mauritius, which many Chagossians regard as an oppressive overlord with no historical or legal connection to the archipelago. Chagossians would much prefer to remain British, or at second best be placed under the wing of the Maldives, which are located much closer to Diego Garcia.
Demonstrating their resolve and determination not to be sold off to Mauritius, and creating a new political reality, a group of Chagossians has re-established a settlement on the Île du Coin, the main island in the atoll of Peros Banhos, 120 nm north of Diego Garcia. Led by the Chagos Islanders’ First Minister, Misley Mandarin, the group has been on the island since February, with their right to remain endorsed by the British Indian Ocean Territory Supreme Court. Misley Mandarin and his group are not intending to leave, and a wealthy backer is proceeding with plans to help re-establish a sustainable community on the island, which, though cleared in 1971, is the birthplace of 300 still-living Chagossians. The Peros Banhos atoll previously was run as a coconut plantation, with the Île du Coin its main settlement and port.
