Op-Ed: Green Shipping Requires Giga-Scale Projects and Regulatory Certainty

 

The shipping industry stands at a decisive moment. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has already committed to reaching net-zero emissions by or around 2050, with interim targets for 2030 and 2040. These milestones demand rapid transformation of a sector that currently contributes almost three percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The upcoming vote at the IMO in October will determine whether the industry gains the clear framework it needs to accelerate its energy transition, or whether uncertainty continues to slow progress.

Pilot projects and small-scale demonstrations have played a useful role in testing new technologies, but they cannot deliver the volumes of affordable green fuels required to decarbonize the global fleet. Only giga-scale projects can provide the speed, cost reductions and reliability needed to meet the IMO’s ambitious goals. At InterContinental Energy, we see mega-projects, supported by predictable regulation and industry-wide partnerships, as the only credible path to define the next chapter of maritime decarbonization.

The Case for Scale

The shipping sector requires an entirely new fuel system at a global level. Unlike other industries that can decarbonize incrementally, maritime must transition to fuels that can power vessels across international waters, be available in every port, and be produced competitively enough to rival fossil fuels. This transformation cannot be achieved through scattered initiatives.

Giga-scale renewable energy hubs provide a credible pathway. Projects like InterContinental Energy’s Western Green Energy Hub (WGEH) in Western Australia demonstrate what is possible. At full build-out, WGEH will produce up to 28 million tonnes of green ammonia per year, enough to displace a significant proportion of today’s marine fuel demand. Even its first phase, expected in the early 2030s, will deliver two million tonnes annually. By then, production costs are expected to fall below $650 per tonne, making green ammonia competitive with fossil-derived fuels - but only if the right regulatory framework is in place to unlock demand and investment.

The economics hinge on size. Like the oil and gas industry, large renewable projects can tap resource basins to maximize efficiency. InterContinental Energy’s project locations in coastal deserts combine world-class wind and solar profiles, with windy nights and sunny days creating a near-continuous energy supply for hydrogen electrolyzers. This natural complementarity reduces intermittency and enables cost-effective, large-scale production of green fuels. For shipping, this means green fuels can reach the market more quickly and expand in line with demand.

Among the potential fuels, green ammonia stands out as one of the most viable options for deep-sea shipping. While its volumetric energy density is lower than conventional marine fuels, it is relatively straightforward to store and transport at scale. Crucially, ammonia can be produced directly from renewable hydrogen, meaning both fuels are part of the same value chain. It is energy-rich enough to power long-haul voyages, scalable from abundant renewable resources, and avoids the land-use and food security concerns associated with biofuels. Momentum is already building, with ammonia-ready vessels entering the global fleet and ports beginning to plan bunkering facilities.

Building the Ecosystem

Fuel producers alone cannot deliver maritime decarbonization. Ports, shipbuilders, engine manufacturers, financial institutions and training providers must all evolve in parallel. Infrastructure for bunkering and handling new fuels needs to be developed. Shipyards must deliver dual-fuel and ammonia-ready engines. Investors must provide capital through long-term contracts. Seafarers must be trained to handle alternative fuels safely.

Encouraging signs of collaboration are emerging. Some shipping companies are committing to offtake agreements, a vital step in enabling mega-projects to reach final investment decision (FID). Ports across Europe, the Middle East and Asia are mapping future fuel requirements, and classification societies are establishing safety standards for ammonia handling. Yet more must be done. Without stronger demand signals from the shipping sector, companies risk missing the opportunity to secure competitively priced green fuels, leaving other industries to move ahead.

Timing is also critical. Infrastructure must be available when shipping needs it, not years later. That means building ahead of demand. InterContinental Energy’s projects are already progressing through environmental approvals, with phased development designed to align with the IMO’s milestones. If the industry waits until demand is guaranteed, it will be too late to meet the 2030 and 2040 targets. Forward planning is essential, even when the commercial case is not yet fully visible.

Regulatory Certainty as the Catalyst

The decisive factor in unlocking this transformation is regulatory certainty. Shipping is a global industry that relies on clear and enforceable international rules. For decades, the IMO has provided the level playing field necessary for trade. It must now provide the same clarity for decarbonization.

Earlier this year, the IMO adopted a revised strategy at MEPC 83, but the vote on mid-term measures in October will be decisive. This package, which could include fuel standards and carbon pricing mechanisms, has the potential to unlock investment across the sector. A robust framework will give shipowners, ports and fuel producers the confidence to commit to the large-scale infrastructure required. Without it, uncertainty will delay capital flows, slow down deployment and risk derailing progress toward net zero.

With regulatory clarity, however, the industry can move decisively. Developers can advance giga-projects, investors can commit capital, and shipowners can plan vessel renewals knowing that alternative fuels will be available at competitive prices. The October vote is not simply a policy milestone; it is the catalyst for the entire ecosystem to accelerate.

A Call to Action

The shipping industry has no margin for delay. Giga-scale, modular renewable projects can deliver affordable fuels at scale. Partnerships across the ecosystem can align supply and demand. Regulatory clarity from the IMO can unlock the confidence needed to act with speed and conviction.

Maritime leaders now face a responsibility and an opportunity. They must support the IMO’s vote in October, advocate for ambitious regulatory measures, and commit to offtake agreements that will bring giga-projects from vision to reality. They must also champion collaboration across the value chain, ensuring that ships, ports, fuels and finance evolve together.

The future of shipping will not be defined by incremental improvements but by decisive choices. Scale, certainty and collective action are the keys to success. The time to act is now, and the industry must seize this moment to lead the global energy transition.

 Isabelle Ireland is Head of Corporate Operations at InterContinental Energy.