Mixed Messages for Maritime in the Refreshed UK Government
There are mixed messages for the maritime community in the appointment of ministers to the government of the UK’s latest Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Prime Minister Burnham has been described by President Trump as an "extremely liberal" mayor of a town. But it would also be fair to describe him as a pragmatic and experienced minister and politician, albeit with little exposure to defense, foreign affairs or trade matters. Hence his appointment of ministers in these areas is an indication of the direction of travel he is likely to take.
Starting with the most important appointment, John Healey - the Defence Secretary who resigned because of the inadequate funding of last month’s Defence Investment Plan - has been brought back into government and appointed as Chancellor of Exchequer. Given that Healey resigned because he thought the defense funding deficit jeopardized national security, he will be keen to find extra money to fill immediate needs.
Additionally, the new Burnham government - once settled in - can be expected to set out funding allocations to meet NATO short to medium commitments. But potentially the new Chancellor of Exchequer could go further. When he resigned, John Healey complained that the Defence Investment Plan fell ‘well short of what is required for defence at this dangerous time’, as had been set out in the Strategic Defence Review. The Defence Investment Plan balked at fully funding the Strategic Defence Review, and the Chancellor will be inclined to find the money to fund it fully.
Increased defense spending is likely to be accompanied by a desire to focus on deals which benefit UK companies such as shipbuilders and missile manufacturers, and on bilateral projects with European NATO partners. Thanks to AUKUS and the continuing close cooperation on nuclear and intelligence matters, there will still be heavy emphasis on US-UK projects. But the balance in defense spending is likely to shift subtly over time towards UK and European contractors as the inevitable consequences of America First policies take root.
At variance with this, Prime Minister Burnham has made some contrarian cabinet selections in order to keep senior figures in government who might be politically dangerous if pushed out of government, most obviously in the appointment of left-of-center Ed Milliband as Foreign Secretary. Based on his previous voting record and a deep back-history of dislike for President Trump, Milliband will not be keen to join American war-fighting efforts in the Middle East, and was apparently one of the strongest critics of American action in the Gulf under the Starmer government.
Replacement of the well-respected Dan Jarvis by Wes Streeting as Defence Minister was also a particularly curious choice. Unlike Jarvis, late of the Parachute Regiment, Streeting has acknowledged he has no background in defense; he might also be considered sympathetic to recognizing the greater importance of government spending on health and welfare. He is a competent minister, but perhaps has been positioned to dilute the clamor for more defense spending.
The new government is pledged to honor the Labour Party 2024 manifesto commitments. But it will tack in different ways in other policy areas relating to the maritime arena, when compared with the previous government under Prime Minister Starmer.
The new prime minister has dispensed with the services of Attorney General Richard Hermer, whose devotion to his particular interpretation of international law drove the last government to press forward with the now-abandoned transfer of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The new government may or may not revive the deal; the question remains open.
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Hermer-inspired legal restraints, underwritten by Ed Milliband, were also behind the Starmer government’s initial restrictions on the use of US bases on UK soil, and also delayed for years the launching of seizure operations against Russian dark fleet tankers.
With Ed Milliband moved on from the role where he oversaw – and prevented – further oil and gas field development, there is likely to be a revival of the offshore North Sea oil industry. But it looks likely this may only be temporary, giving the green-light to projects already under way or which can be tied into existing infrastructure. Exploitation of the still considerable development potential of North Sea oil and gas probably needs to wait for a general election - providing it delivers a new party in government.
