Iranian Tankers Begin to Move Out Past U.S. Blockade Line

Sonia I, Diona and Hero2 (orange, yellow and red, respectively) exit the Gulf of Oman past the American blockade line (Pole Star Global)

For weeks, TankerTrackers.com has been flagging a steady drip of empty "shadow fleet" tankers working their way around the U.S. Navy blockade line and into Iranian waters, despite the clear and potentially deadly risk of a kinetic strike. The numbers have been small, but give a signal of Iran's high motivation to get more floating storage capacity into the Arabian Gulf. Now, the consultancy is seeing early movement in the other direction: full Iranian tankers are exiting the blockade for the first time in months.

U.S. Central Command advises that the waterway is still under blockade until June 19, but a handful of Iranian tankers are turning on their AIS transponders and making the outbound run. On Tuesday, TankerTrackers.com spotted two Iranian-owned VLCCs, the NITC tankers Diona (IMO 9569695) and Hero2 (IMO 9362073), exiting out past the U.S. Navy blockade line at the east end of the Gulf of Oman. Another NITC tanker, the Suezmax Sonia I (IMO 9357365), followed shortly after, confirmed by data from Pole Star Global.

"These are Iran's first crude oil exports in two months," the consultancy observed. The results were broadly confirmed by Kpler, which identified four Iran-linked tankers exiting the Gulf of Oman.

The transits are perhaps the most definitive sign yet of loosening navigational restrictions in the strait. Other signs are more questionable: NBC News reports that Iranian forces have continued to launch small-scale drone attacks at ships in the Strait of Hormuz in the days since the MOU was signed. Central Command's Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) continues to advise shipping of a "substantial" risk to navigation in the area.

Tanker owners are diverting substantial tonnage in ballast towards the Mideast in order to be ready to seize the moment when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Goldman Sachs estimates that more than 800 million barrels of tanker capacity is within five days' sailing distance of the strait, ready to load stored oil and deliver it to market.

"VLCCs signaling the UAE as their next destination are tracked sailing from as far as the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean," assessed tracking consultancy Windward in a market note. "At least 23 VLCCs are currently heading for the UAE ports of Khor Fakkan or Fujairah based on their AIS messages, joining at least 30 already at anchorage there."

War risk cover appears to be a hurdle, as it often is in conflict zones. The Trump administration is said to be encouraging insurers to begin providing commercially viable cover for the strait as quickly as possible, and has considered a possible "VIP pass" system with a pay-for element that would give shipowners access to U.S. Navy escorts, according to Politico - a security benefit that has not hitherto been available.

"Most shipowners appear to be cautiously awaiting more details before planning new transits of the Strait of Hormuz," BIMCO chief analyst Niels Rasmussen told CNBC. "They will seek reassurance that transits are not only permitted but also safe before sending their ships through the strait."