After Strong Months, US Container Imports Are Expected to Level Off
Imports into the U.S. continue to defy predictions with a strong series of months through the summer, but are now projected to level off. The National Retail Federation reports that after a “drawn-out peak shipping season,” it believes retailers are mostly stocked for the remainder of the year and imports will slow, in part reflecting a cautious consumer outlook.
“Most holiday merchandise has arrived, and the remainder of the year is just a matter of last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error.”
Total imports for September, however, appear to have defied expectations and continued a string of strong months. Technology provider Descartes Systems expects U.S. container exports reached 2.55 million TEU. It represented a better-than-10 percent increase versus last year, and Descartes says it is likely a new record month.
Driving the strong volumes, Descartes says, were imports of retail goods, such as plastic goods, furniture, bedding, toys, and sporting goods. It points to more than 924,000 TEU coming from China. Chinese volumes, it says, were a third of total U.S. volumes (36 percent). It was likely in part driven by the potential expiration of the trade tariff truce between the U.S. and China, which was extended during the summit in Washington, D.C.
The NRF reports 2.28 million TEU for retail imports coming through the top U.S. ports. It believes the volumes were likely off slightly from August, when 2.3 million TEU were imported. Volumes, it notes, were up between July and August but down slightly from last year.
The retail trade association expects strong increases over last year’s volumes, but the import volumes will level off with October at a forecasted 2.25 million TEU. It predicts November and December will fall to around 2 million TEU per month. It sees a slight rebound in January 2027 at 2.07 million TEU and a decline in February to 1.92 million TEU, in part due to a shorter month and Chinese holidays.
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Gold predicts that, with the strong import levels for the past few months, consumers will find stores well stocked with a wide range of merchandise and price ranges for the holiday season and end-of-year sales.
With core economic indicators broadly flat or weakening slightly month over month recently, Ben Hacket of Hacket Associates expects the leveling off in volumes and a slowdown from the highs, especially in May and June, when imports were running ahead of 2025 levels. The NRF’s Global Port Tracker now expects total imports to be up 1.4 percent for 2026 to 25.8 million TEU versus 25.4 million in 2025.
