U.S. Imports Expected to Set New Record Ahead of Tariffs and Cost Increases
Import levels into the United States are running at record levels as U.S. retailers and manufacturers rush to get goods into the ports ahead of expected tariffs and cost increases. Volumes at U.S. ports are at levels last seen in May 2022, when the economy was rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Volumes topped 2.4 million TEU in June, according to data from Descartes Systems Group, a supply chain technology provider. It reports a better than eight percent increase versus a year ago, when volumes were depressed by uncertainties over the implementation of Trump’s tariff policies. Descartes reported a better than 27 percent year-over-year surge to more than 814,000 TEU coming from China.
The trade group, the National Retail Federation, points out that despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend. It warns that continued supply chain impacts from the conflict in Iran and affordability concerns are impacting the markets.
In its Global Ports Tracker, the NRF highlights volumes in May reached 2.24 million TEU, up more than 10 percent from April, and it was projecting June at 2.33 million TEU, which would have been nearly 19 percent ahead of last year.
Descartes and the NRF both point to imports moving cargo early and frontloading the typical peak season. Carriers are raising shipping costs as of July 1, based on the fuel price increases and the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, Trump’s temporary 10 percent Section 122 tariffs, imposed after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his earlier tariff program, are set to expire on July 24. The administration has, however, already said it plans to introduce new tariffs in response to its claims of forced labor. Donald Trump made a new posting on social media touting the virtues and success of his tariffs, citing Toyota’s planned investments in the United States.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher.”
The NRF reports that imports in the first half of 2026 were at 12.77 million TEU, up two percent from the same period in 2025. However, it is dramatically increasing its forecasts for July to 2.47 million TEU, which would be up 3.3 percent from last year and would top the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
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While it also raised its forecast for August, the NRF reports volumes are expected to drop to 2.22 million TEU, down 4.5 percent year over year. It then looks for monthly volumes to be down between approximately four and six percent between September and November. (It has not yet forecast December.)
The NRF notes that the peak shipping season, which historically centered around October, has moved up in recent years, reflecting concerns ranging from port labor disputes to expected tariff increases.
