Retail Imports Continue Decline Despite Little Impact from the Middle East
Retailers' import volume into the United States continues to be weighed down by concerns over tariffs and trade policy, says the National Retail Federation. It continues to expect month-over-month and year-over-year declines through most of the first half of 2026, while saying that other than fuel costs, retailers are not being significantly affected by the conflict in Iran.
The retail trade group issued its monthly outlook for container import volumes, projecting monthly declines in six of the first eight months of 2026. It sees potential increases in May and June when it believes import volumes decreased a year ago as the industry worked to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” launch of global import tariffs.
“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “The supply chain is global, and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects, whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers, or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets.”
The report highlights that import volumes were down 7.5 percent in February versus January and more than 4 percent over 2025. They project when the final numbers are in for March that volumes will only be up slightly over February, with timing for the Lunar New Year holiday impacting the results of the first quarter.
They also note that while the U.S. Supreme Court blocked Trump’s tariff program, the administration quickly reintroduced a 10 percent global tariff. The NRF also points to the administration recently adjusting tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as pharmaceutical products and ingredients.
The NRF believes TEU volumes, however, will go back above 2 million TEU per month starting in April, but will still be down 5.6 percent versus last year. They foresee gains of 7.3 percent for May and 6.9 percent for June over 2025. The forecast, however, shows that the year-over-year declines will resume in July (down 8 percent) and August (down 6 percent).
that matters most
Get the latest maritime news delivered to your inbox daily.
While fuel supplies are not restricted in the United States, they note that ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict continues. The dramatic increases in fuel prices, however, also factor into both shipping costs, with container carriers starting some surcharges, as well as in trucking and other elements of the supply chain.
The NRF is now projecting a 1.8 percent decline in total container import volumes in the U.S. for the first six months of 2026. They are projecting 12.3 million TEUs, while noting the full year in 2025 was 25.4 million TEU.