Retail Container Traffic to be Up 6 Percent in First Half of 2011

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to be up 11 percent in February over the same month last year and the first half of 2011 should be up 6 percent over the same period in 2010, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Strong growth in 2010 has retailers cautiously optimistic that the economic recovery is finally taking hold,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “While high unemployment and rising commodity prices are cause for concern, retailers are encouraged by six consecutive months of retail sales gains and improved consumer confidence.”

U.S. ports handled 1.14 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 7 percent from November as the holiday season wound down, but up 5 percent from December 2009. It was the 13th month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

January remained steady at 1.14 million TEU, a 6 percent increase over January 2010. February is forecast at 1.11 million TEU, up 11 percent over last year, with March at 1.16, up 8 percent; April at 1.22 million TEU, up 7 percent; May at 1.3 million TEU, up 3 percent, and June at 1.37 million TEU, up 4 percent.

The first half of 2011 is forecast at 7.3 million TEU, up 6 percent from the first half of 2010. That compares with 17 percent growth in the first half of 2010 over the first half of 2009. For the full year, 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 percent increase over 2009. The percentages were high because 2009’s 12.7 million TEU was the lowest level seen since 2003.

“This year will see the return of the consumer as the main driving force of liner imports despite lingering high unemployment rates,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “The short-term indicators that drive our model suggest that there will be solid growth this year but our caution is that the rate of growth seen in 2010 will not be repeated. We are projecting that annual growth will be in the 7 to 8 percent range.”

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalportracker.com.

As the world's largest retail trade association and the voice of retail worldwide, NRF's global membership includes retailers of all sizes, formats and channels of distribution as well as chain restaurants and industry partners from the United States and more than 45 countries abroad. In the United States, NRF represents the breadth and diversity of an industry with more than 1.6 million American companies that employ nearly 25 million workers and generated 2009 sales of $2.3 trillion. www.nrf.com
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Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions.