Hormuz Traffic Increases as Iran Metes Out Passage for Political Gain
Daily reports continue to show a metered flow of tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz, with signs that Iran is increasing the activity to win political favor and propaganda gains. Countries, including China, India, and Japan, are reported to have been permitted to bring vessels out of the Persian Gulf while U.S. Central Command continues to assert the blockade is in full force.
Timed to Donald Trump’s state visit to China, Iranian state TV reported that after requests from the Chinese foreign minister and the country’s ambassador, Chinese tankers were again being permitted to make the transit. They said there was an understanding between the two countries about the “Iranian management protocols” and that it was based on “the deep relations and strategic partnership between Tehran and Beijing.”
The Chinese supertanker Yuan Hua Hi (308,663 dwt), loaded with a reported two million barrels of Iraqi crude, was first out, starting the transit late on Wednesday. It was only the third Chinese tanker to be permitted to make the transit since February, but the ship’s AIS signal showed it had reached the Arabian Sea. Iranian state TV on Thursday said it was the first of approximately 30 Chinese vessels that would be granted safe passage.
Iran could be daring the U.S. to intervene with the vessel as Trump was seeking deals with China. U.S. forces redirected another Greek-owned tanker, Agios Fanourios I, at the beginning of the week as it attempted to reach the Arabian Sea after being given Iranian permission to sail. It is also loaded with Iraqi crude, and its last AIS signal shows it still holding off Oman inerrupting a planned delivery to Vietnam.
As representatives of the BRICS nations gathered in New Delhi, India, there were reports from India’s Directorate of Shipping that two more LPG carriers, Symi and NV Sunshine, were permitted to make the transit on May 13, bound for India. Reports from India indicate that a dozen LPG tankers and one Indian crude oil tanker have been granted passage by Iran since the start of hostilities.
“Five weeks into the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, opaque, and increasingly managed through selective access,” wrote maritime AI intelligence firm Windward in its latest analysis. It has identified inbound and outbound movements, including VLCCs, LPG carriers, product tankers, bulk carriers, and limited Qatar-linked LNG transits.
A second tanker linked to Japan also made the transit on May 14, reportedly loaded with crude from Kuwait and the UAE. It is only the second Japanese tanker to make the transit, with Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi saying the country had made a direct request to Iran. The Panama-flagged Eneos Endeavor (312,137 dwt) is also showing on its AIS transmission that it has reached the Arabian Sea.
An analysis from Reuters highlights that vessels linked to Japan, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, China, Malaysia, and the UAE have been permitted to make the transit by the Iranians. By Bloomberg’s calculations, a total of 38 vessels of all types crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past week. It says that it is three times as many vessels as during the week of May 9.
CENTCOM said on Friday that a total of 20 U.S. warships are supporting the blockade. It reported the count has risen to 75 vessels that have been redirected, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, during a TV interview, claimed Iran had run out of storage capacity and that there had been no loadings of crude by Iran in the past few days.
Argus, however, is citing reports today, May 15, that Iran has indeed resumed loading at Kharg Island. By Windward’s estimation, no Iranian oil has departed Kharg since May 7. Windward highlights, however, that Iran has as many as 20 tankers staged at Kharg with a capacity of as much as 25 million barrels that it can use as floating storage. Vortexa is asserting that at least six empty oil and gas carriers sailed past the U.S. blockade, adding to Iran's storage capacity.
“Kharg Island isn’t maxed out of storage space,” wrote TankerTrackers.com. “If it were, they would grab the nearest available tankers and top them up. Instead, oil production has slipped to match the drop in tanker loadings. There are still plenty of tankers they can load.”
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Iran appeared to have slowed loadings for a few days while it was dealing with a large oil spill off the island. It asserted that it came from a vessel and was less significant than it appeared in satellite images.
Despite the increase in vessel movements, Windward warned in its analysis that IRGC-linked small-craft activity remains elevated. By its estimation, Windward said on May 14, 333 IRGC-linked small crafts were operating across three major concentration zones in the Strait of Hormuz.