French Carrier Charles De Gaulle Safely Transits Strait of Bab el Mandeb

Fighers aboard Charles de Gaulle — Courtesy Marine Nationale

The French Navy FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) appears to have come safely through the Strait of Bab el Mandeb and is now at the French naval base in Djibouti.

The French Navy operates a tighter release of operational information than most other Western navies, creating a news vacuum which fake news generators seem keen to create confusion with. However, there was no disguising the FS Charles de Gaulle as it went through the Suez Canal on May 6, accompanied by a Jacques Chevallier-class replenishment oiler, probably FS Jacques Chevallier (A725), and an Aquitaine-class anti-submarine warfare destroyer. There is likely to be at least an additional air defense frigate and a nuclear submarine with the CSG. Pictures have subsequently shown the carrier anchored off Djibouti, with a Djibouti coastguard boat standing by.

The transit of the French CSG through the southern Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb appears to have attracted no comment in Houthi-controlled media, although the transit cannot have been missed by the Houthi coastal watch system.

This lack of adverse comment ties in with other indications that the Yemeni civil war is winding down. A drone was intercepted over Eilat on May 12, but unusually neither the Israelis nor the Houthis made any comment regarding the incident, leaving who might have been responsible for the intrusion in some doubt. The last acknowledged Houthi drone attack on Israel was on April 6, which brought to an end a series of six Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israel starting on March 30, none of which did any damage, and which did not attract Israeli reprisals.

Yemeni analyst Mohammed al Basha also notes that the Houthi leader AbdulMalik al Houthi has recently given up his weekly addresses to the nation, which had been used to fire up Houthi military resolve. Instead, the Yemeni press has been more concerned with a successful break-through in long-running negotiations, chaired by the UN in Amman, which has resulted in an agreement between the Houthis and the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) for the exchange of 1,643 prisoners, scheduled for May 14.

Although skirmishes are still going on along the border between Houthi and IRG forces, an important element in the overall reduction in tension has been the re-ordering of political forces in southern Yemen, which has seen the IRG, backed by the Saudis, stepping up to exert more authority in the area of Yemen it controls and to impose unity, at the expense of the Southern Transition Council and its Emirati sponsors. This sets the scene for a better-based negotiation between the Houthis and the IRG over a final settlement of the civil war, which the Houthis are hoping will be bankrolled by the Saudis. There is no desire at the moment on either side to upset this steady progress.

In this improving security climate, Saudi exports of crude from the southern Red Sea port of Yanbu have risen steadily. In March, Kpler estimated that Yanbu crude loadings averaged ?3.3 million bpd, up from a pre-war 800,000 bpd in February, mostly headed south through the Strait of Bab el Mandeb. Notwithstanding damage done to the East-West pipeline by an Iranian drone attack on April 8, throughput over the whole of last month averaged 4 million bpd, and is on track to reach maximum export capacity of 5 million bpd by the end of this month. Saudi Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser Al Muajjiz said on May 11 that there are plans to increase the pipeline capacity and to boost exports even further. About 20 million bpd of exports from Gulf countries were lost in April because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

All jetties occupied and an orderly queue waiting off the Aramco oil export terminal at Yanbu, amongst 33 arrivals logged by VesselFinder on May 13 (Sentinel-2)

The situation remains volatile. But for marine traffic in the Red Sea, this seems to look like good news, with the chances of a resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping now somewhat diminished.