Tropical Storm Erin to Pass North of Puerto Rico as Major Hurricane

 

The U.S. Coast Guard has set its first precautionary warning in place for ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands for the expected effects of Tropical Storm Erin, which will likely be a hurricane by Friday and a major hurricane by the weekend. 

Erin is currently located about 1,000 nautical miles to the east of Puerto Rico and moving westward at about 15 knots, according to the National Hurricane Center. By Sunday, it will likely pass within about 200 nautical miles of Puerto Rico's north shore, bringing heavy rain, high waves and tropical storm-force winds to Puerto Rico, as well as the USVI and the northern Leeward Islands. It is expected to reach an intensity of 100 knots by Sunday, but it is tracking far enough out to sea that a landfall is not in the forecast for the next five days.  

Beyond that timeframe, weather forecasting models diverge on where Erin might go next, according to the National Hurricane Center. "There is a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda," NHC cautioned. "As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place."

For shipping and port interests in Puerto Rico, the Coast Guard has set Port Condition Whiskey (72 hours until gale-force winds arrive). That means reviewing heavy weather response plans and getting ready for going to sea, or doubling down on lashings if the vessel must remain in port. The public is advised to remove recreational boats from the water, and mariners are reminded that ports are safest when they are as empty as possible during a storm, the Coast Guard cautioned. The captain of the port will typically order oceangoing vessels out to sea 24 hours in advance of the arrival of gale force winds (Condition Yankee), and this is the next step in the procedure. 

"Oceangoing vessels 500 gross tons and above must make plans to depart no later than the setting of Port Condition Yankee unless authorized by the Captain of the Port," COTP San Juan warned in an advisory Wednesday.