New Tool Evaluates NSR Container Shipping Viability
A new study examining the commercial opportunities of Arctic shipping by the Copenhagen Business School (CBS Maritime) concludes that the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will remain too short for investments in ice-class vessels to be economically viable until around 2040. Only then could the Arctic shipping route become competitive.
The calculations presented for a container ship are based on a calculation tool available for download along with the report. The tool allows researchers and industry professionals to insert the specifications of a given vessel, along with environmental and economic parameters, in order to obtain information on the feasibility of transporting containerized cargo along the NSR.
The study evaluated the viability of an ice-class container ship operating along the NSR compared to a vessel navigating the Suez Canal route. It also examined the tanker, offshore and cruise ship segments and states that the dry bulk and offshore segments are currently the sectors with the largest potential, as the Arctic hosts an abundance of natural resources.
The results from the quantitative study on the feasibility of liner shipping across the NSR indicate that Arctic liner shipping may become economically feasible around 2040 if the ice cover continues to diminish at the present rate.
The possibility of a major expansion of the maritime activities rests upon several crucial assumptions which are all subject to major uncertainties. These uncertainties include the hazardous environmental conditions, port and infrastructure availability and high costs of operation compared to the southern shipping lanes. Additionally the Arctic Ocean lacks an international governmental and regulative framework in combination with high entry costs creates uncertainty for the maritime industry seeking to operate in and around the Arctic Ocean.
The report is available here.
