Negotiations Over Chagos Islands Hit a Critical Point

 

The British government has issued a statement after another round of negotiations between the UK and Mauritius over the draft deal that had been agreed between the two countries over the Chagos Island military base in the Indian Ocean. A change of government in Mauritius following a general election last November derailed the provisional agreement.

At stake is not the continued US use of the base, more a concern that the changes in sovereignty in the agreement would undermine its operational effectiveness – for example, by limiting the types of munitions that could be stored at the base, or by restricting the types of operations which could be mounted from the base. Mauritius is a member of the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, and might also object to the use of the Diego Garcia lagoon by nuclear submarines. Under the AUKUS agreement, the UK also intends to base a nuclear submarine in Western Australia, and Diego Garcia would be within its patrol range and the nearest UK sovereign territory under present arrangements.

The statement acknowledged that both sides were keen to conclude a deal, it being understood that there is pressure to do so before President Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

However, briefings to journalists from the two sides differ on the exact state of negotiations.

The new government of Mauritian Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam apparently had three areas of objection to the draft: the length of the 99-year lease of Diego Garcia’s sovereignty which would permit the United States to continue its operations, the nature of sovereignty which the UK would enjoy – and the amount of money which the UK would have to pay annually to Mauritius, effectively as rent.

The Mauritian side has apparently agreed to revised terms over the first two issues, with the amount of money the remaining area of contention. The UK had originally offered to pay $110 million annually for 99 years, but Ramgoolam sought $975 million annually.  The two sides are still apparently negotiating a final figure.

While press speculation focuses on a final deal between the two sides being agreed before Monday, January 20, the day of the Presidential Inauguration, this would still leave two hurdles to overcome. The United States would still need to consent to any alterations made to the original agreement, and before coming into force a Treaty would have to be approved by the UK Parliament. It would seem impossible for these two steps to be completed within the next week, leaving time for the new US Administration to raise objections. 

It would be a more diplomatic approach to wait for the new administration’s approval before announcing any new agreement. Although President Trump has spoken of his territorial ambitions concerning Greenland and the Panama Canal Zone, he is not known personally to have made any pronouncements over Diego Garcia; but his incoming Secretary of State has made clear his objections to the deal, which is seen as pandering unnecessarily to Chinese interests.

The negotiations come at a tense time in the Mideast, which is the raison d'être for having an American base within range. Iran has been conducting extensive land, sea and air exercises, and massive internal security operations, ahead of what it sees as a period of increased risk associated with a change in administration in the U.S. It may be of significance that it has stationed a spy ship, the MV Saviz, in the northern Indian Ocean to cover approaches from the south. According to Nesda commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, this patrol sector is to be reinforced with the presence of IRINS Sahand (F74) once its refurbishment post-capsize and its participation in next week’s major naval exercise is complete.