DNV Says Shipping is Moving from “Ambition to Action” on Decarbonization
Momentum is building in the shipping industry with a growing number of initiatives to address decarbonization, concludes DNV. The group launched the ninth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 with the Energy Transition Outlook 2025 during the London International Shipping Week.
“The industry is moving from ambition to action,” said DNV, pointing to the growing number of orders for dual-fuel vessels and the emergence of new technologies. They, however, note that supply and infrastructure are falling far behind, but reiterated the industry’s long-held belief that there will be no one singular solution to the challenges that lie ahead.
Introducing the study and providing his annual view on the state of the industry, Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime of DNV, highlighted three important shifts that he sees as currently shaping the industry. He pointed to the geopolitical challenges, such as the Red Sea and Ukraine, which have driven tonnage miles “through the roof,” decarbonization, and technology in all its forms, from wind propulsion to the growing discussion about Artificial Intelligence (AI).
The anticipated adoption of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework will shape the future, and DNV has focused the new report on exploring the implications of the regulation and the status of the fuel transition. It also used the opportunity to present new concepts, which DNV believes could play a key role in helping its overall goals.
One of the key challenges that has been repeatedly highlighted is the lack of supply of zero-carbon fuels. DNV reports the supply will have to grow twentyfold based on its estimates. Based on the lack of production capacity, Ørbeck-Nilssen called for keeping all pathways open, including LNG. He points out that despite the challenges of a carbon-based fuel and concerns about well-to-tank emissions, that the growth of biomethane has the opportunity to transition LNG, which itself is viewed as a transitional fuel. He also points out that one of the methods required is reducing overall fuel consumption.
DNV is proposing “Carbon Capture Corridors,” similar to the concept for Green Shipping Corridors. As part of their research, they looked at the opportunity for the largest bulkers, tankers, and containerships to employ onboard carbon capture. They call for the development of the offloading/storage capabilities in 20 ports key to the trade of these large vessels, highlighting that this could reduce emissions by 20 percent.
Among the concerns that the industry will have to confront is DNV’s conclusion that the IMO framework will double costs, but they point out that it is manageable through a range of strategies. Exploring a case study of an 18,000 dwt chemical tanker, they looked at biofuels versus the option of paying the penalties in the IMO regime. They concluded that biofuels, which are easy to use, will also be more cost-efficient.
During the industry leaders’ discussion, it was also pointed out that adapting larger vessels to the new standards will be easier than adapting smaller ships. The expectation is that operators will start with their biggest ships, while it was also pointed out that shipbuilders do not have the capacity for what some have proposed with large-scale scrapping and replacement tonnage.
Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of IMO, spoke confidentially of the coming adoption of the framework at the upcoming meeting in October. He said there are negotiations, but it will proceed with DNV concluding that adoption would provide greater certainty to the industry and hopefully spur more investments in the infrastructure and technology needed to achieve the goals. Also contributing is DNV’s estimate that the Net-Zero Fund created by the IMO will receive $10 to $15 billion annually. They note that work has yet to be done on the guidelines and how the funding will be used, but believe it could be a major factor in helping the industry toward the IMO’s goals for decarbonization.