Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln Faces Open Water in the Gulf of Oman

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and her carrier strike group (CSG) should shortly be arriving in the Gulf of Oman sea area, adding to the military options available to the US Central Command in handling the ongoing situation in Iran.

Positional data tracking has now clearly demonstrated that the Abraham Lincoln CSG was on the same course as the Iranian bulk carrier Arvin (IMO 9193202), and overtook the Iranian vessel as both were traveling westwards through the Straits of Malacca. The CSG, traveling at a much faster cruising speed than the Alvin, soon left the Iranian vessel well behind.

In terms of competing forces which the Abraham Lincoln CSG might encounter in the Gulf of Oman, the Chinese 48th Flotilla is still split, with the Type 054A guided-missile frigate Daqing (F576) watching over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden while the two other ships of the flotilla make their way back to their home base at the Project 141 Overseas Support Base in Djibouti after completing their participation in Exercise Will for Peace 2026 off South Africa. The 48th Flotilla probably needs some regeneration time in Djibouti before resuming operations, at which time, with the Red Sea relatively quiet, their highest operational priority is likely to be keeping an eye on the Abraham Lincoln CSG.

The Russian Pacific Fleet flotilla - which conducted Exercise Marumex-2025 with Myanmar's Navy in mid-November in the Andaman Sea - has now dispersed. In the Gulf after a spell in the Red Sea is the Russian Udaloy Class frigate RFS Marshal Shaposhnikov (F543), having been a visiting ship to the DIMDEX 2026 defense exhibition held January 19-20 in Port Hamad, Qatar. The Marshal Shaposhnikov is probably being supported by the Boris Chilikin Class oiler Boris Butoma (IMO 8842557). These two vessels set off with the Gremyashchiy Class corvette RFS Gremyashchiy (F337) from Vladivostok in October, and together made port calls Da Nang (Vietnam), Sattahip Naval Base in Thailand and at Sabang (Indonesia). The Gremyashchiy then spilt off to make port visits alone to Chittagong and then Colombo to mark the 75th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s Navy. Having reversed course and headed eastwards, the Gremyashchiy made a visited Brunei Darussalam from December 9-12, so the corvette now appears to be returning back to Vladivostok alone.

It is also possible that the Russian Steregushchiy Class corvette Stoykiy (F545), also having participated in Exercise Will for Peace 2026 off Cape Town, will continue her circumnavigation of Africa by cruising up the east coast towards the Arabian Sea area in which the Abraham Lincoln CSG is likely to operate.

Russian and Chinese naval vessels often make a number of port visits in the Gulf area at this time of year prior to participating with Iranian naval forces in the annual trilateral Exercise Maritime Security Belt. It would be a surprise if the Marshal Shaposhnikov and the corvette Stoykiy joined forces with Chinese PLAN ships from the 48th Flotilla and linger to take part in another iteration of the Maritime Security Belt exercise this year. The Russians and Chinese will probably be wary of becoming entangled with any potential conflict between Iran and the United States, and will leave the Iranians to face the Americans alone, as is the established pattern.

As for the Iranians, the 103rd Flotilla has recently completed its controversial participation in the BRICS Exercise Will for Peace 2026 maneuvers off the Simon’s Town Naval Base. The 103rd Flotilla is made up of the regular Iranian Navy (Nedaja)’s forward base ship IRINS Makran (K441) and the Bayandor Class corvette IRINS Naghdi (F82), plus the IRGC (Nedsa)’s converted oil tanker, IRIS Shahid Mahdavi (L110-3).

Russian corvette Stoykiy (F545), Emirati corvette Bani Yas (P110) and Nedsa IRIS Shahid Mahdavi (L110-3) take part in the sea-going phase of Exercise Will for Peace 2026 (PLA Navy video)

While a Board of Inquiry is meeting to uncover why President Cyril Ramaphosa’s instructions that Iran was not to participate were ignored, the Chinese PLA Navy published video of the sea-going part of the exercise, which clearly showed that both IRINS Naghdi (F82) and the Nedsa’s IRIS Shahid Mahdavi (L110-3) were active participants rather than mere observers.

The 103rd Flotilla should now be making its way home to Bandar Abbas, but had not arrived in normal home berths in the naval harbor as of January 22. The Nedaja claims that a 104th Flotilla has also been at sea, but it is unclear what vessels this flotilla is comprised of, or where they might be. The Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor as of January 22 appears to be quite full, with four of the six active frigates tied up alongside.