BIMCO: Container Ship Orders are Driving China's Shipyard Surge
But as in past boom-bust cycles, the rush to deliver now could be followed by yard underutilization later
More than any other sector, ocean freight has driven the surge in shipyard activity over the past year, according to BIMCO, and it has boosted the fortunes of Chinese shipbuilding in particular.
“Container ships dominate both the order book and its growth over the past 12 months. They account for 30% of CGT on order and 68% of the increase during the past year,” says Niels Rasmussen, the chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.
The vast majority of those orders are going to Chinese yards. Fully 81 percent of the container ship orderbook is held by Chinese shipbuilders, BIMCO assesses.
All of the other major sectors are dominated by China too - tankers, gas tankers, bulkers, and ro/ros - with Chinese yards holding 72 percent or more of the orderbook in each category.
China holds a bigger share of a bigger pie. The total global orderbook's size is up 13 percent year on year and currently sits at 203 million CGT, slightly down from the record-setting 210 million CTG record set in May. China's overall share (across all vessel classes) is 64 percent of the orderbook.
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BIMCO assesses that China's massive backlogs would take its yards four years to work through, at current capacity. But many of the vessels are due to deliver in 2027-8, which means that Chinese yards will need to increase their throughput quickly to meet the timeline. Large-scale investments are well under way in China's shipbuilding sector, including the reopening of entire dockyards.
"Chinese yards are scheduled to deliver a record 44.0 million CGT in 2028, nearly twice the 22.7 million CGT delivered in 2025. The capacity expansion needed to achieve this could increase the risk of underutilisation if contracting weakens in the future,” said Rasmussen.
