Archers Need Arrows: Strengthening the U.S. Navy's Submarine Arsenal

 

[By Alana Davis]

In 2023, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wargamed a conflict between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Reflecting 24 iterations of the wargame, the study weighed if China could succeed in invading Taiwan in 2026 and examined the variables affecting the outcome. Although CSIS concluded that China is unlikely to succeed, it found the result to be highly contingent on posture, weapons, and platforms. Crucially, one of the most determinant factors is U.S. submarine dominance in the undersea domain.

The report recommended prioritizing full-spectrum undersea warfare in planning for a potential large-scale, cross-ocean military conflict. This prioritization reflects the potency of the submarine force: Fast Attack Submarines (SSNs) torpedoing adversary commercial shipping and naval forces as Guided Missile Submarines (SSGNs) strike key adversary infrastructure with long-range cruise missiles.

But what happens when the archers run out of arrows – when submarines expend their weapons in the first battle of the next war? Does the U.S. have the inventory to support necessary reloads? Are the ports, vessels, and personnel ready to conduct the rapid reloads required to maintain pressure through a protracted war? If the current munitions stagnation continues, the answer is no. The Navy should work with the Department of War (DoW) and Congress to increase weapons supply and reinforce the means to conduct expeditionary submarine weapons transfers.

Recent Weapons Production and Expenditure

The Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 Defense Budget prioritizes revitalizing the defense-industrial base with a notable increase in ship and weapons production. The National Defense budget request rose 13% from last year, topping $1 trillion, while the President has called for a $1.5B topline. In December 2025 the DoW announced an expansion of an existing RTX contract to order 219 Block V Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) – the largest order in years, and a nearly 10-fold increase from the 22 planned for purchase in FY25.

Unfortunately, this sharp increase barely covers recent expenditures. The Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group alone expended 125 TLAMs against Houthi targets in Yemen. SSGNs conducted multiple strikes against Houthi targets and enabled the B-2 bomber strikes on Isfahan, Iran. Assuming a TLAM stockpile of roughly 4,000, U.S. naval forces in the Middle East depleted this missile’s inventory by 3% in relatively limited strikes against Iran and its proxies. This is a frightening statistic when contemplating the expenditures from all-out war with a near-peer adversary like the PRC. This troubling consideration is not limited to land attack missiles: A House-commissioned CSIS simulation estimates that in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the Navy could run out of long-range anti-ship missiles in less than a week of fighting.

Weapons production and delivery holdups reflect 1990s production halts after the end of the Cold War, unstable procurement continuing into the 2000s, and an increasing scarcity of U.S.-based manufacturing of certain critical parts like rocket motors and processors due to obsolescence challenges. The limited missile inventory is not the only problem. Diminishing submarine weapons on-load readiness stems from aging submarine tenders (ASes), which were commissioned in the 1970s, and the logistical complexities of loading weapons in foreign submarine ports.

What should the DoW and the Navy prioritize to ensure continued lethal armament of the submarine force? Action should include a two-pronged focus: one, creatively and efficiently increasing TLAM and torpedo supply, and two, investigating and investing in the ports and support vessel ability to conduct submarine weapons transfers.

Action 1 – Advance Submarine Munitions Supply

Military leadership and civilian defense experts agree that submarines are a key asset enabling U.S. victory in future naval conflicts. Instead of throwing money broadly towards munitions production, the DoW should prioritize making weapons that the bulk of both U.S. naval forces and U.S. allies can deploy.

The U.S. should focus on TLAMs because they are versatile – launched from SSNs, SSGNs, Ticonderoga-Class cruisers (CGs), and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (DDGs) – totaling approximately 55 submarines and 83 surface ships. The United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and the Netherlands all use TLAM – greatly increasing weapon production efficacy through scale. For similar reasons, the U.S. should also focus on Mk-48 ADCAP production, utilized by all 69 submarines in the U.S. fleet plus many Australian, Canadian, and Dutch vessels.

Additionally, efforts must be made to expedite weapons stockpile growth through manufacturing contracts and partnerships that encourage “close enough” component solutions rather than perfection. The Navy should be allowed to make minor compromises on weapon specs without compromising safety or viability. In November 2025, the DoW’s Strategic Capabilities Office announced open solicitations for a new, affordable SSN heavyweight torpedo called the Rapid Acquisition Procurable Torpedo (RAPTOR) to augment the Mk-48 ADCAP. Producing a torpedo at $500,000 per weapon vice the current $4 million per weapon is certainly enticing, given the many potential targets, but it does not mean production efforts and methods should slow on parts for the Mk-48 ADCAP. Promoting newer, cheaper technology is key, but continuing production of the tried-and-true ADCAP is also essential.  

Furthermore, if compromises must be made between TLAM and ADCAP production investment, the Navy should prioritize the Mk-48 ADCAP because of its greater efficiency in sinking enemy ships and reinforcing a strategy of deterrence by (sea) denial.

Another production avenue worth investigating is shared weapons production with allies. The U.S. continues to lean on co-manufacturing partnerships with Australia and South Korea to re-supply depleted 155-millimeter artillery shells from the Russo-Ukrainian war. Similar co-production agreements should be signed with Australia and the UK as part of the AUKUS submarine partnership, as well as with Japan for manufacturing of parts for the TLAM and/or the ADCAP. Production of critical weapons and weapons components in strategic foreign locations strengthens U.S. logistics networks and shortens operational timelines. Weapons stockpiling in strategic locations improves deterrence, as allied power projection becomes more credible with the proximity of weapons – though this forward staging must incorporate defense, dispersal, and deception to mitigate against enemy strikes.

Action 2 – Strengthen Submarine Munitions Re-Supply Capability

In the Western Pacific, the U.S. maintains three bases capable of submarine weapons handling of TLAMs and ADCAPs: Yokosuka and Sasebo, Japan and Apra Harbor, Guam. Additional foreign port reload sites may include Subic Bay, Philippines; Souda Bay, Greece; Sterling, Australia; and Diego Garcia. These reloads are aided by the two remaining Guam-based submarine tenders, the USS Frank Cable and the USS Emory S. Land, which were specially designed to travel to submarines and assist in conducting weapons transfers, repairs, and nuclear-level maintenance. This small but mighty AS fleet continues to demonstrate its utility, such as in 2022 when the Frank Cable supported the first TLAM reload conducted by a U.S. submarine in Australia on the USS Springfield (SSN-761).

But these tenders are over 45 years old. They have outlived their intended lifespan and their ability to deploy safely comes into greater question with each passing year. As of July 2025, the Pentagon awarded $72.6 million to General Dynamics-NASSCO to continue developing up to three “AS(X)” class submarine tenders. With both existing tenders slated to decommission by 2030, time is quickly running out to replace these unique and valuable assets. Still, a net of only one additional tender by 2030, assuming production deadlines are met, is not enough given that by 2028 the Navy aims to boost submarine production to three SSNs a year (one Columbia Class and two Virginia Class). Further, one must carefully consider where to homeport these assets, focusing on Japan and/or Australia for maximum operational flexibility.

Besides investing in the rapid production of the new AS(X) class, the Navy should invest more in the infrastructure of the submarine bases themselves – namely Apra Harbor, Guam. Apra Harbor relies on the island’s public power authority which supplies energy via import-reliant petroleum plants with 50-year old generators susceptible to natural disaster, not to mention deliberate attacks. The unreliable power supply alone threatens the likelihood of efficient weapons transfer and maintenance stops for submarines on their way to a fight in the Pacific. Additionally, concerns over adequate equipment like heavy-lift cranes and trained personnel to conduct efficient submarine weapons reloads also remain.

The Navy should thoroughly investigate the real capacity of its overseas submarine ports to conduct efficient and safe submarine weapons transfers in a simulated wartime scenario. This analysis should answer the questions: How long does it take to move weapons inventory, re-load equipment and crews, and a submarine tender as applicable to various ports? Which ports lack critical equipment or trained personnel to conduct short-notice reloads? What is each port’s and each tender’s maximum reload ability and fastest reload pace? The last publicly documented transfer of a Mk-48 training shape to a submarine was in 2021 between the Frank Cable and the USS Hampton (SSN 767). Five years may as well be ancient history when facing today’s emerging adversary threats. There must be steady effort to test these vessels and ports in wartime conditions and pace, but compromises can also be made. For example – the Navy may be able to withstand AS(X) delays by ensuring all foreign submarine port call locations have heavy-lift cranes.

Conclusion: Make More of What Works and Make What Works Better

U.S. submarines remain a dominant and lethal force, but in the 21st century, their lethality is jeopardized by two weapons concerns: rapidly depleting TLAM and Mk-48 ADCAP inventories, and inadequate weapons reloading facilities. The solution is not just to throw more money toward the problem. Since FY24 the DoW has invested hundreds of millions into weapons development and submarine tender design. The DoW and U.S. Navy must make more of what works by continuing production of versatile and battle-proven weapons. The United States should make what works better by improving how allied foreign ports and strategic assets can perform in wartime.

For the U.S. submarine fleet to dominate in naval conflict, it must have ample weapons stockpiled in strategic locations with all enabling infrastructure ready to support time-sensitive reloads. The first steps in ensuring continued dominance include: acknowledging the submarine force has critical weapons-related shortfalls, and studying which inventories, which bases, and which production lines are most vulnerable.

Submarines can operate within Surface Weapons Engagement Zones and conduct long-range tactical fires. In a target-dense environment, submarine munitions will deplete rapidly. In a conflict with the PRC, some estimates suggest an SSN will expend its inventory of 20 to 50 torpedoes within two weeks on station, and an SSN or SSGN will launch all their 12 or 154 TLAMs, respectively, within three weeks. At such rates of fire, it is easy to see how weapons inventory and reload pace become critical to continuing, and winning, the future fight.

Archers need arrows. If Congress and the U.S. Navy do not act now to ensure submarines stay armed and ready for battle, munitions problems will only worsen – leaving the force, the fleet, and country more vulnerable.

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Lieutenant Alana Davis, U.S. Navy, is a submarine officer serving as a Force Manpower Planner under OPNAV N1 in Arlington, VA. She is a graduate of Harvard University (BA ‘19) and The University of Florida (MBA ‘26). The views presented are hers alone and do not necessarily represent the views of Department of War or the Department of the Navy.

This article appears courtesy of CIMSEC and may be found in its original form here.