Survey: Shipowner Sentiment Has Refocused on Managing Uncertainty

Shipowners are waiting for clarity on the future of decarbonization, according to the results of a new executive survey from Wärtsilä. The uncertain outlooks for IMO regulations, green fuel availability and different technology pathways present challenges for business decisionmakers, the maritime technology group found, and owner sentiment on green fuel investment is less bullish on average than it may have been in years past.

In the survey, about half of respondents said that they want more simplified and streamlined global regulations. 38 percent said that they want to see significant industry-wide investment in sustainable, green solutions, and 37 percent want more financial incentives for innovation and green transition initiatives.

The shift comes down to uncertainty, according to Roger Holm, President of Wärtsilä Marine and Executive Vice President at Wärtsilä Corporation. "We have uncertainty of the IMO regulations, and our customers understand that during the life cycle of a new vessel ordered now, things will change. The key challenge that I hear a lot is the lack of predictability on when to invest," said Holm. "If there is something that our customers would wish for, it is 'please have a predictable journey going forward because then when I put my money on the table, I can do it.'"

For now, the survey suggests, owner sentiment is focused on staying nimble - a traditional shipping industry priority. Clear majorities of the respondents emphasized their readiness to adapt business to capitalize on new opportunities, and to anticipate market shifts. Simply managing unpredictability - a basic operational issue in an uncertain era - was a top-of-mind concern for about two-thirds.

Holm says that intelligent, expert use of AI and shipowner data is one way that shipping companies can improve prediction internally, and customers are finding value in digital-services partnerships that couple technology with expertise. Long-term service agreements are also proving popular as a way of improving predictability, both for the owner and the service provider.

"A very high majority believe in the value of long-term agreements," Holm says. "Partnering up, we can look at this more in a long term perspective. We can use more data, more AI tools and then optimize both uptime and fuel performance and then in the end of course also emission. Close to 90% agree that a service agreement enhanced operational efficiency."

Owners are also paying close attention to minimizing life-cycle compliance cost over a newbuild's lifespan. This includes early planning during the design phase for incremental, step-wise upgrades in years ahead, each arranged to keep the ship within the acceptable envelope of emissions performance as the rules change. It's important to start planning carefully for this need before cutting steel, Holm says, since ships ordered today will still be operating in 2050.