Houthis Break Through Towards Bab el Mandeb

Houthi attack of Saudi trucks — Houthis claim to have attacked Saudi convoys and seized critical ground increasing the threat against the Red Sea (Houthi military media)

The situation in southwest Yemen is evolving fast. The information coming from sources on the ground is conflicting, confusing, and in many instances duplicitous. However, it appears the Houthis, having made initial slow progress in the southwest of the country are now accelerating towards their primary objective – which appears to be to seize more of the southern Red Sea coastline, down to the peninsula which overlooks Perim Island and the Bab el Mandeb.

The Houthis primary aim in resuming warfare after the relative quiet since an informal ceasefire came into force in March 2022 has been to increase their bargaining power, by being able to control sea traffic through the Bab el Mandeb. From the positions which they held prior to the outbreak of the fighting, Houthis control over Red Sea traffic was incomplete, because the Red Sea is wide in adjacent areas. Shipping becomes more vulnerable as the Red Sea narrows towards the Bab el Mandeb at the southern entrance of the Red Sea.

Forces of the Internationally Recognized Government control the coastline in this area, and also islands in the Red Sea which overlook shipping channels. The Houthis deny that this is their intent, insisting that they can already control sea traffic in the Red Sea, and that the objective of their operation is to bring to an end the blockade of Houthi territory which they believe is being orchestrated by the Saudis. The implication nonetheless is that the Houthis are aiming to restrict Saudi use of the Bab el Mandeb.

Locations that Houthi forces are reported to have entered, as of September 10
(Google Earth/CJRC)

The Houthis have not yet achieved their primary objective. But they have pushed south down the Red Sea coastline past Al Khawkhah, seizing high ground to the east in the area of Al Hays, and pushing towards the port of Mocha, reaching as far as Zibian. Mocha was in the hands of the Internationally Recognised Government (IRG) this morning, but had fallen by the afternoon, confirmed by social media videos of Houthi troops on the airfield on the western edge of the city.

The Houthis also appear to have captured the area around the Emirati-constructed airfield at Dhubab, threatening to cut off Mocha, and are getting close to the Murad Peninsula and its port at Ras Menhali, lying opposite the IRG-held island of Perim and which dominates the narrow sea channel through the Bab el Mandeb.

Reports also suggest that after a number of repulsed attacks on the Hanish Islands, the Houthis have managed to land and establish footholds on Zuqair, and both on Lesser and Greater Hanish.

The situation remains fluid, but clearly the Houthis would secure a major advantage if they were able to secure positions overlooking the Bab el Mandeb and on the Hanish Islands, as the value of this stranglehold is reinforced by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

So far, the forces of the IRG have not collapsed elsewhere, and indeed have launched attacks on Houthi positions to the east in the Marib area, which will be a drain on Houthi resources. Neither Saudi Arabia, nor other parties interested in maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea are likely to allow the Houthis to succeed, but they appear to have reacted too late. In particular, the Saudis have not deployed airpower against the Houthis once they were exposed on the flat and featureless terrain of the Tihama Plain.