Hapag Issues Difficult Outlook Saying War is Creating Unsustainable Burden
Hapag-Lloyd became the first of the major carriers to offer a glimpse into the impact the industry faces as the war with Iran continues. The company finalized its strong results for 2025 and, while maintaining its outlook, issued a dire forecast for 2026.
Speaking during a press briefing on Thursday, CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said the company and the industry are “grappling with a big challenge,” as the war disrupts shipping in the Middle East. Hapag reports it has six vessels with 150 crewmembers trapped, and while saying they are safe, they remain a top concern for the company.
Jansen said the company is incurring additional costs of between $40 and $50 million per week due to the ongoing conflict. He described this as a burden on the company that is “not sustainable for a long time.” It comes as they were already facing uncertain demand and a strong decline in freight rates. He said average rates were down eight percent per TEU, for an operation that handled 13.5 million TEU last year. Now, costs are also rising, especially with fuel.
Last year was a good one for Hapag-Lloyd, in part driven by the launch of the Gemini Cooperation with Maersk that started in February. The company volume was up eight percent. Its Liner Shipping segment saw revenues increase to $20.6 billion, while it also saw strong growth as it works to grow its terminal operations. Group EBITDA was down but still came in at $3.6 billion, and the Group EBIT was at $1.1 billion, while the Group profit amounted to $1.0 billion.
It warned that its outlook for 2026 remains subject to considerable uncertainty due to the highly volatile development of freight rates and the conflict in the Middle East. It warned that on an EBIT basis, the company could record as much as a $1.5 billion loss or a profit as high as $500 million. EBITDA was forecasted in a range of $1.1 to $3.1 billion.
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Hapag’s caution for the industry came as industry trade group BIMCO also issued its container shipping market overview and outlook. It calculates that around 130 containerships, totaling 1.5 percent of the global fleet capacity is stranded in the Gulf. It estimates that as much as 5 percent of global ship demand has been impacted by the war, while saying that with the broader impact out to areas including India and Pakistan, it estimates that nearly 10 percent of the global fleet has been impacted by the war.
BIMCO forecasts that global demand is expected to fall by five percent in 2026. It expects as the war drags on and Persian Gulf shipping is impacted, carriers will be laying up vessels that would have operated in the region as opposed to transferring them to other routes. It expects the weakening of the global supply/demand balance will continue into 2027.