Amidst Tensions With Iran, Diego Garcia Fills Up With Support Aircraft
At a time of increased risk of renewed high-end conflict with Iran, there appears to be an influx of US support aircraft into the Naval Support Facility airfield on Diego Garcia.
On October 2 the South Pan appeared to be almost empty of aircraft. But on October 24 there were at least at least 10 aircraft on the apron, which from the resolution of the imagery available in open sources appear to include a C-5 heavy transport, a C-40 VIP transport, at least two P-8 maritime patrol aircraft and at least four KC-135 refueling aircraft.
In previous times of tension, the airfield has been protected by F-16 fighter aircraft: although hard to spot, none appear currently to be present. There are no B-2 or B-52 long-range bombers present.
Nor is there an armada of warships moored in the lagoon; those present are part of the permanently-stationed Maritime Prepositioning Ship Squadron 2 (MPSRON-2).
In normal times, there can be as few as a single P-8 maritime patrol aircraft present on Diego Garcia. The arrival of additional aircraft from the continental United States has historically been indicative of either an increase in readiness or of impending operations.
that matters most
Get the latest maritime news delivered to your inbox daily.
In the past 12 months, the range of Iranian IRGC drones and missiles has increased, and the accuracy of their targeting has improved significantly, aided by Russian and Chinese imagery intelligence now being passed to the Iranians in near real time. There is no evidence yet that the Iranians have yet achieved the ability to target Diego Garcia effectively; the last attempt to do so, involving the firing of two Khorramshahr-4 medium range ballistic missiles on March 20, was a failure. One missile landed well short of the target and the other was intercepted shortly after launch by an SM-3 interceptor fired from a US warship.
There is now a greater risk that the Iranians will be successful if another attempt is made, given their ability to improve the performance of their missile and drone arsenal. So with this increased threat risk, even if the UK government gave permission for offensive operations to be mounted from British-held Diego Garcia, it is likely that strike assets would be hidden and protected. An attack might be launched by aircraft based further afield, with Diego Garcia used for supporting activity and possibly as a recovery airfield.
