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Wrtsil Publishes Shipping Scenarios 2030

Wärtsilä has pioneered in the creation of the Shipping Scenarios 2030, which describe what shipping could look like in twenty years. Scenarios help companies, governments and shipping linked organizations in long-term strategic thinking in a fast changing world. The Shipping Scenario work yielded three alternative futures, which are Rough Seas, Yellow River and Open Oceans.

Scenarios are a method of making sense of a complex environment. The modern shipping business is a global puzzle made from many pieces, enabling collaboration around the world. Shipping has a huge daily impact on people's lives as 90 per cent of global trade is carried by sea. Shipping is also the most efficient and cleanest way of transporting goods over long distances.

The future of shipping is determined by economics, technological development, geopolitical trends, energy resources, social values, environmental aspects, as well as by the shipping industry itself. The past few years alone have brought about fundamental change. The effect on companies, governments and people's everyday life will be significant.

"Currently shipping is the most efficient and cleanest way of transporting goods over long distances and Wärtsilä wants to contribute to ensuring that this remains the case," says Jaakko Eskola, Group Vice President of Wärtsilä Ship Power. "As the leading marine solution provider, Wärtsilä wants to share the scenarios with stakeholders for mutual generation of new strategies and modes of cooperation. What the future will look like in reality depends on the decisions we all make, together and individually."

Complex world condensed into three scenarios

The Wärtsilä Shipping Scenarios 2030 were produced by combining extensive expert input, quality research, hard work, dedication and a bit of imagination. Analysis of massive amount of information yielded three plausible scenarios.

WÄRTSILÄ SHIPPING SCENARIOS 2030 IN SUMMARY

Three alternative futures and how they might come about:

Rough Seas

In the world of Rough Seas, scarcity of resources is predominant. Wealth is divided unequally among nations, resulting in tension. Climate change adds further stress. New trade routes have emerged as a result of two key developments: an increase in bilateral agreements and industries moving to resource-rich areas. The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally and national governments control ports. The volumes of water and agricultural products being transported have increased significantly. The global tension has increased the need for armed escorts, also at sea.

Yellow River

In Yellow River, China dominates the global arena economically, geopolitically and in shipping. China is no longer the world's cheapest manufacturer. Instead, labour and resource-intensive manufacturing has moved to Africa and other Asian countries. Economic growth is significantly slower in the West and climate change is tackled only on a regional level. Most of the big shipping companies are Chinese-owned, and trade routes have shifted according to Chinese trade interests. New ports are being built in Africa, Eastern Russia and India, and Chinese ports have grown into sophisticated, integrated logistics centres.

Open Oceans

The world of Open Oceans is a strongly globalised one. Global mega-corporations and megacities have gained power over the nation states. Governments cooperate on the governance of climate issues and free trade protocols. Climate change is perceived as an opportunity, and innovating green solutions is a lifestyle. In this world, logistics is king. Most goods are transported between megacities and areas rich in resources, such as clean water, food and energy. Environmental challenges have led to the development of new types of vessels; desalination, waste management and recycling ships are anchored outside megacities. Sustainable cruise vacations are a growing trend.

The Wärtsilä Shipping Scenarios 2030 are available at www.wartsila.com/shippingscenarios

You can also the Twitter feed at www.twitter.com/shipping2030