Op-Ed: UK Defence Investment Plan Delivers More But Not Enough

Sir Richard Knighton, the Chief of the UK Defence Staff

Not wishing to depress those of our readers who agree that the price of peace is the cost of preparing for war, your correspondent has listened to the UK Government announcement on how it is going to fund its future defense strategy so that you don’t have to. There was some good news announced. But after a two-year delay, caused largely because the government could not achieve consensus on what should be cut to fund it, a financial plan has been announced, which is still far from complete.

Unlike health and education, which in the UK are blessed with 10 Year Spending Plans, the new Defence Investment Plan still does not map out annual funding allocations beyond the Four Year point, leaving it unclear how defense spending will rise to hit 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035 – a NATO target to which the government is committed. The budget has been boosted artificially by including sums previously accounted for elsewhere (such as pensions and the costs for MI5), such that in comparable terms defense will get the same as it had in 1995, whereas the budget for health over the same period has tripled. Moreover, of the “new” $19.8 billion added to the budget, $6.3 billion is still to be found, so the search for extra funding, either within the existing defense budget or at a cost to the welfare budget, is far from over.

The plan does, however, provide some additional clarity on what is to be funded. Naval dockyards at Faslane, Portsmouth, and Devonport are allocated $35 billion for facility improvements. The plan funds the Dreadnought nuclear ballistic missile submarine force, new nuclear warheads, and 12 AUKUS nuclear attack submarines. The aircraft carriers will receive strike drones. Plans to build a new Dutch-UK amphibious landing flotilla are confirmed, as is the intention to replace the eight Type 45 air defense destroyers with six air defense and drone-capable common combat vessels. Overseas bases will receive improved air defenses. With the first Type 31 HMS Venturer (F12) entering service in 2027, followed by the first Type 26 HMS Glasgow (F88) in 2028, there have been no cuts as yet to the future frigate programs.

The GCAP Sixth Generation strike aircraft program, being developed with Italy and Japan, is confirmed, as is the procurement of 12 F-35As for a Royal Air Force NATO nuclear strike role. $14.6 billion is to be spent on long-range strike missiles and low-cost cruise missiles. The army will get new artillery systems to replace those sent to Ukraine. Combat capability in all three services is to be linked in a single, unified digital targeting web, enhanced with AI, and providing sovereign autonomy.

The conundrum the UK’s Defence Investment Plan seeks to resolve, making some progress but without quite succeeding, is how to fund radical new technologies and weapons systems, developed as a product of wars in Ukraine and the Gulf, without cutting present conventional operational capability – for which there is still high demand, and which may yet still be needed in later phases of war in Ukraine in the Gulf. With money still to be found, existing capabilities are still at risk of being cut, and it remains uncertain whether critical specialist skills and experience can be retained long enough to still be passed on to the next generation of sailors – which can only be done if there are ships to sail in.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.