UK Report: Bulker Hit by Missile Near Ukraine Was Likely Not the Target 

 

An analysis of the missile strike on a bulker last month as it was departing Ukraine concludes that it was likely not the intended target and that catastrophic damage was avoided due to the missile failing to properly detonate, according to the UK’s Defense Intelligence unit. In a brief summary of its analysis of the incident, the UK concludes it “demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice,” by the Russians.

Ukraine highlighted the missile strike calling it a “brazen attack” firing a missile hitting a commercial cargo ship in the Black Sea. The UK’s Intelligence Update confirms the vessel was the Aya (27,239 dwt), a Greek-owned and managed bulker registered in St. Kitts and Nevis. It had loaded more than 26,000 tons of grain in Chornomorsk and was outbound in what the UK states was international waters when it was struck by a missile. 

There was damage to the vessel but no injuries to the crew. It put into Romania for repairs. The AIS signal shows the ship departed today, October 3, from Constanta bound for Istanbul. The grain cargo was being transported to Egypt.

The UK analysis concludes that it was “almost certain” that the missile was an AS-4 Kitchen anti-ship missile. They speculate it was launched by a Tu-22M3 Backfire Russian bomber. The report highlights that the Kitchen missile has consistently underperformed in the Ukraine conflict. They also note that Russia lost at least one Backfire bomber in April likely raising apprehension of the pilot during the September mission and haste by the pilot wanting to exit the area immediately after launch for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile.

“It is unlikely that the Aya was the intended target from this mission and was likely struck due to poor targeting procedures from Russian pilots using an aging munition,” writes UK Defense Intelligence. “Launching a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect heading against a likely erroneous target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice.”

The UK concluded it was “a realistic possibility” that the pilot incorrectly identified the Aya as a target in haste.

For the ship and its crew, the UK notes there was also a realistic possibility that a detonation failure occurred avoiding catastrophic damage.

This is not the first instance in which the UK believes merchant ships were hit in error. In November 2023, a Liberian-flagged bulker was struck by a missile while docked in the port of Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) killing the port’s pilot who was on the bridge and injuring three crewmembers and a port worker. In that situation, Defense Intelligence concluded the missile might have been unable to find a military radar signature and instead locked on to the civilian radar signal.

Several ships have been hit since the conflict began but mostly while on dock. There too however it was determined that the ships were likely not the target. Russian forces have repeatedly attacked the port cities targeting infrastructure and grain storage facilities.