U.S. Agrees to Help Russia Increase Ag Exports, Lift Bank Restrictions

 

Russia and the United States have agreed to the outlines of a tentative ceasefire deal in the Black Sea, allowing most combat on shore in Ukraine to continue. The contours of the agreement largely align with past Russian demands, and Ukrainian leaders said that they would watch Moscow's compliance closely in the days to come.

According to the Kremlin, the agreement must allow state-owned Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to relink to the international SWIFT bank messaging system, a key demand of Russian negotiators since at least 2023. The bank is under EU, UK and U.S. sanctions, and the agreement would require participation from European regulators to reconnect it to SWIFT. 

The U.S. has agreed to help Russia restore its "access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports," according to a White House readout, including ports, "payment systems," and reduced maritime insurance costs. The White House did not describe any clear benefits for Ukraine.

After the announcement, Ukraine's defense minister said that the success of the deal requires Russia to keep its military vessels in the eastern half of the Black Sea, continuing the status quo. Ukraine's military has damaged, destroyed or sunk about one third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet using missiles and drones, and as a practical matter, Russia's surviving warships have been largely confined to the safety of the eastern half the sea since last year. If the Russian Navy uses the ceasefire to transit near Ukraine's shores again, Ukraine will have "full right to exercise right to self-defense," said Ukrainian defense minister Rustem Umerov.

The three sides are still working out the details of the deal, along with a parallel agreement to stop attacks on "energy infrastructure." Russia has had considerable success in destroying Ukraine's electrical grid with drones and missiles; for its part, Ukraine has been making strides in long-range suicide drone technology, and has been targeting oil refineries and pipelines deep within Russian territory. In talks with the White House last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin secured a U.S. agreement for an energy infrastructure ceasefire, which would allow Russia's refining industry time to recover from the damage.

Long-range sea drone and aerial drone attacks have been Ukraine's primary areas of success in the conflict over the past year, and these operations would cease under the twin agreements. Russia has gained a strong upper hand in front-line ground combat, which was not addressed in the talks and will continue as before. Even though the deal favors Russia's comparative military strengths, Ukrainian leaders expressed little certainty that the Kremlin would adhere to the terms.  

"The behavior of the Russian Federation in the coming days will show a lot, if not everything," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "If there are air alarms again, if there is military activity in the Black Sea again, if there are Russian manipulations and threats again, then we will have to take new measures - specifically against Moscow."

The details remain under discussion, and a full-spectrum pause in the fighting appears unlikely in the near term. Russian diplomats told The Moscow Times this week that the Kremlin's negotiators have been instructed to stall for time in meetings with the U.S. side so that Russian troops can continue to take more Ukrainian territory. "These guys know the Ukraine talks inside and out. They’ve been tasked with nitpicking every comma," one source told Moscow Times. In an interview Tuesday, President Trump acknowledged the possibility that Russian negotiators could be "dragging their feet," and noted that he had used stalling tactics himself earlier in his business career.

"Things are unfolding more according to Russia’s scenario. Whether this [Black Sea limited ceasefire] will happen is still unclear,” Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent pro-Russian journal editor, told Moscow Times. "But even if it’s implemented, it won’t directly change the situation on the battlefield, where the initiative currently belongs to Russia."