U.S.-Russian Talks on Black Sea Ceasefire Wrap Up in Riyadh

 

U.S. and Russian negotiators have wrapped up their first day of talks on a Black Sea ceasefire, according to Russian media. The Saudi-hosted conversation in Riyadh lasted 12 hours, and the details of the results should be released tomorrow in a joint statement. Diplomats from most Black Sea nations were not present, but Ukrainian representatives gave their input to the U.S. delegation on Sunday and were on hand nearby for consultation on Monday. 

The outlines of a ceasefire deal have begun to emerge, though so far it appears that most hostilities will be allowed to continue on shore, where Russia is making steady gains on the front line. On the ground, the ceasefire solely covers attacks on "energy infrastructure," leaving ports and railways unprotected despite a Ukrainian proposal to include them. The details of the Black Sea ceasefire will likely be known Tuesday. Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy to Russia and Ukraine, spoke optimistically about the talks and told reporters there were signs of "real progress."

Bulgarian and Romanian diplomats have expressed unease, according to the FT, as any deal is likely to provide a new military advantage to Russia after a year of comparatively peaceful navigation in the western Black Sea. Recent Russian attacks on Odesa have killed as many seafarers as the last year of Houthi violence in the Red Sea, but merchant vessels have recently enjoyed unhindered access to the ports of NATO's member states in the region (Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania). This was not always so: until Ukraine's missiles and suicide drone boats drove the Russian Navy out of the western Black Sea, mines and missile attacks were a near-constant threat. 

In three years, Ukraine has yet to attack a foreign merchant ship in the Black Sea, though it has struck several civilian-crewed, Russian-flagged vessels used for military logistics. It has focused instead on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and so far it has damaged, disabled or sunk about one third of the Russian Navy's warships in the region, including the fleet flagship Moskva and the Kilo-class attack sub Rostov-on-Don. The remainder of the fleet has been withdrawn to the relative safety of Novorossiysk and the northeastern Black Sea - but it could roam westward again if a temporary ceasefire were reached.