Trump Doubles Tariff on India for Buying Russian Oil
President Donald Trump has announced that India's tariff rate will be doubled to 50 percent as a penalty for continuing to import Russian oil (and an added incentive to reach a comprehensive trade deal with U.S. negotiators). The additional tariff follows India's repeated insistence that it will not fold to the White House's demands, and will continue to import Russian oil, which now constitutes about one-third of its crude imports.
Trump has already decided to implement a 25 percent tariff on Indian goods effective Thursday, citing India's steep trade barriers. In addition, his new order imposes an additional 25 percent tariff on all Indian exports if India does not cease buying Russian oil by August 27. The delay gives additional time and additional leverage for the U.S. to negotiate with Delhi on terms for an overall trade deal, and simultaneously applies pressure to Moscow to agree to Trump's main demand - a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump directly linked Indian crude consumption to the front lines, noting that its purchases fund Moscow's military operations, resulting in Ukrainian fatalities.
In a statement, India's foreign ministry responded that its refiners buy Russian oil for national security purposes. It noted that several other countries also buy energy from Russia but face no tariff penalties.
Trump's order acknowledges this point: the text instructs his agencies to "determine whether any other country is directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil." China is well known as the leading buyer of Russian crude, followed by India in second place, then by Turkey, a distant third. The president's order directs agencies to recommend penalties for any buyers they can identify.
In Delhi, resistance to Trump's ultimatum is expected. Russian oil saves Indian refiners about $1 billion per month because it is discounted below Brent, creating a large opportunity for profit on refined-product export sales, notes GZero. Economic interests aside, the tariff tactics are unpopular with the Indian public, and Modi will not wish to be seen as weak.
“For India to back down in the face of US tariff threats and essentially downgrade its relationship with Russia will also absolutely not play well among the Indian public,” CFR senior fellow Manjari Chatterjee Miller told GZero. “Modi cannot be seen kowtowing to any US administration.”
While unwelcome in India, the pressure campaign may be setting the desired conditions for talks with Russia. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday and reported positive results from the discussion, prompting Trump to announce that he will meet with Putin himself next week.