Port of LA Expects 2025 to be in the Top Three and 2026 to See Some Slowing
The Port of Los Angeles notes that despite all the uncertainties of 2025 and the rapid changes in trade policies, that it will still have one of its top three years of all time, making it again the only North American port to exceed 10 million TEU in a year. Port executives, however, point to uncertainties and a lack of settled trade policies contributing to a challenging year in 2026 that should see slowed import levels.
“Even with all the trade uncertainty, we’ll finish 2025 north of 10 million TEUs, putting this year firmly in our top three of all time,” said Port Executive Director Gene Seroka. “All that cargo moved without congestion, and not a single ship backed up.”
November continues trends the port has experienced with seven of the past 11 months showing declines in exports, and erratic levels for imports. Seroka points out that shippers took advantage of the windows during the year and rushed cargo during the pauses in the trade policy swings. For example, July he notes was a record with the port exceeding 1 million TEU.
He believes shippers are now pacing their orders more carefully, represented in an 11 percent decline in imports and an eight percent decline in exports, year-over-year. However, he notes that shippers were early front loading in 2024 due to concerns over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and its impact on trade policy. The U.S. East Coast ports were also threatening a strike by longshore workers, causing shippers to adjust their programs.
While the volumes were down year-over-year, Seroka notes that they are on track with the five-year averages for the Port of Los Angeles.
At the end of 11 months, the Port of Los Angeles has handled nearly 9.5 million TEU, and Seroka said they will surpass the 10 million TEU mark in December. At the end of 11 months, port volume overall is up one percent year-over-year.
Outbound cargo, however, has not benefited from the announced trade agreements. Seroka said they have not seen an increase in soybean exports, agricultural products from California, or elsewhere in the country. He expects that the port is on track for a year-over-year decline in outbound goods.
“I don’t see volumes falling off the cliff for 2026,” Seroka responded to a media question. He projected “single-digit declines” for imports, noting that inventory levels are high and expecting retailers to manage levels carefully. He hopes that as the U.S. moves into mid-term elections, there might be a stabilizing of trade policies and some of the frameworks agreed to in 2025 might begin to contribute to volumes in 2026.
The outlook remains highly uncertain, but the Port of Los Angeles is continuing to move forward with its infrastructure projects. It is planning for long-term growth.