Lull in Houthi Attacks on Shipping as Air War Pressure Builds
Data captured by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations in Dubai suggests that Houthi attacks on shipping have largely ceased, the last incident recorded being an attempted attack on a ship by suspected pirates on April 15. The Houthis claim to have attacked the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) in the Red Sea, but the US Navy doesn’t appear to have noticed. Occasional Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel have however continued. The only safe conclusion to draw at present is that the Houthi missile and drone capability is degraded, but that a resumption of attacks on shipping could still resume.
The conventional expert wisdom is that an air campaign against the Houthis will not dent their tenacious will to fight, the Houthis being stubbornly resistant to casualties and damage inflicted. Such impressions are reinforced by the large crowds that the Houthis are able to mobilize for political demonstrations, such as occurred in Sana’a on April 18.
But Houthi attempts to characterize the American strikes as an indiscriminate assault on civilians, copying the Hamas narrative in Gaza, have largely fallen on deaf ears. One of the largest civilian death counts occurred on April 20, when the Furwa Market in Old Sanaa was struck not by CENTCOM but by a defective Houthi anti-aircraft missile. An attempt to label a strike on a weapons store in a building under construction in Saada as an attack on a cancer clinic was disproven by the Houthis’ own images of the scene.
A spokesperson for the Houthi Health Ministry reported on April 19 that 198 people had been killed since March, without indicating how many were civilians. There clearly was a large death toll following US attacks on port infrastructure both in Hodeida and the Ras Isa fuel terminal around April 24, but elsewhere attacks appear to have been relatively well calibrated and precise. On April 28, the Houthis claimed that 68 African migrants being held in a detention center were killed by an American airstrike.
On balance, the American airstrikes are causing neither an upsurge of support for the Houthi leadership, nor yet a revolt. Their Yemeni opponents think pressure is building on the Houthis, but that a tipping point has not yet been reached. On April 24, the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, was still speaking of ‘promising signs of a shift in the balance of power’ and ‘growing unity among anti-Houthi factions’.
This appraisal appears to be shared by CENTCOM campaign planners. For the moment, strikes are focused on the Houthi leadership, missile and drone infrastructure, sources of revenue and on technical cadres. Strike data from ISW and compiled by @VleckieHond do not yet show a focus on Houthi front line positions, particularly in the Marib and around Hodeida, where government forces would need to break through if they were to recapture key territory taken over by the Houthis.
I plan to update this map every few days with newly located strikes. For now downloads of the source file will only be considered through requests over DMs
— Vleckie (@VleckieHond) April 23, 2025
Link to the map: https://t.co/te08WBdQxB
Confirmed airstrikes recorded by @VleckieHond
But in the meantime, cumulative damage continues to be inflicted. While this pressure on the Houthis continues and builds, CENTCOM gives no indication of any intent to scale back its assault, despite attrition of munitions stocks and MQ-9 Reapers.
Hence the campaign is settling in as a battle of wills, and the Houthis appear to have the weaker hand. Notwithstanding their reputation for resilience, the Houthis have in the past succumbed to pressure - but only when threatened by a loss of territory to their Yemeni opponents. As for Houthi political obduracy, it should be remembered that the Royalist faction under Imam Muhammad al-Badr in Yemen’s civil war of the 1960s came from the Shi’a stronghold in Saada which is now the Houthi heartland - and in those days they accepted military support both from the British and the occasional paradrop of weapons from the Israelis. If the threat to shipping is to be definitively brought to an end, reflected in the risk assessments and responses of the maritime community, then a significant political change in Houthi thinking will still be necessary.