Houthis Face Being Cut Off on Yemeni Coast
Yemen’s Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) has launched Operation Dawn of Yemen across all fronts, with apparently substantial support from allies. The IRG counterattack comes after Houthi forces made a breakthrough down the Tihama coast last month, capturing Mocha, Dhubab and finally Perim Island and the Ras Menhali peninsula, and thus potentially overextending themselves. The IRG’s president, Rashad Al-Alimi, has announced that the objective of Operation Dawn of Yemen is to recapture the capital Sana’a and to end the Houthi insurgency.
In recent days, forces of the IRG have faced heavy attacks by Houthi forces trying to tighten their siege on Taiz, having failed for years to capture the city. IRG sources admit that the Houthis have captured some ground. But they have failed to cut the road linking Taiz to Aden, and have faced fierce resistance not just from IRG formed units, but also from local militias and residents, who have no tribal or religious affiliation with the Houthis.
Local resistance should not be underestimated in Yemen, where every household, as a matter of routine, even in peacetime, holds a substantial armory of automatic weapons. The Houthis have not been able to consolidate their gains around Taiz, nor have they made much progress on other fronts.
The IRG counterattack on the Tihama coast has so far recaptured the airstrip at Dhubab and has reached the coastal N2 highway, thereby cutting off Houthi forces farther south occupying Perim Island and any remaining presence on the Ras Menhali peninsula. IRG sources say their next immediate objective is the recapture of the harbor town of Dhubab. But in keeping with the objective President Al-Alimi has set out, the IRG will be aiming to recapture first Mocha and then Hodeida – a move that would cut off the Houthis' ability to ship in imports.
Houthi and Yemeni Government positions in SW Yemen as noted in reporting on October 5; the situation on the ground is likely to change quickly (Google Earth/CJRC)
A key component of success on the Tihama coastal front will be airpower, as the ground is low-lying scrubland and exposed, and there is only one substantial north-south communications route – the flat and straight N2 highway, which is a close air support pilot’s dream target. Social media has already shown IRG forces near Dhubab on the N20 and motoring north toward Mocha.
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Reports in the New York Times suggest that there is a substantial US intelligence and target acquisition staff based in Saudi Arabia which is now supporting IRG and Royal Saudi Air Force efforts. A British Royal Air Force Airbus Voyager KC3 aircraft has for several hours during the morning of October 5 been seen providing refueling station off Jizan, and there is also heavy US Air Force and French Air Force activity, including a refueler, off Djibouti. For the first time in recent weeks, the Royal Saudi Air Force has openly advertised that it is conducting close air support missions over Yemen, a move no doubt prompted by further attacks on Aramco oil infrastructure around Riyadh and Khurais over the weekend.
For the maritime community, which will not necessarily have been warned about the forthcoming offensive, traffic early on October 5 transiting the southern Red Sea through the Bab el Mandeb appears normal, albeit moving at slightly reduced levels. But traffic flow is likely to be disrupted as the week goes on if fighting persists along Yemen’s southwest coast.
