BP: North America to be Energy Self-Sufficient by 2018
BP has just released its Energy Outlook: focus on North America predicting that the region will become energy self-sufficient by 2018 and produce 27 percent of the world’s oil and gas in 2035.
The study considers the most likely path for North American energy to 2035 and explores some of the key issues that will shape energy supply and demand over the next two decades.
While North American GDP is anticipated to grow by more than 60 percent, solid gains in energy efficiency mean that the energy required to fuel the higher level of activity grows by just six percent over the period.
Even though renewables account for all of the (modest) net increase in energy consumption, fossil fuels remain the dominant forms of energy in North America’s energy mix, accounting for 78 percent of total energy consumption in 2035, down from 83 percent today. Gas is the only fossil fuel with a growing market share, supported by strong supply growth, particularly of U.S. shale gas, and by environment policies.
Key predictions include:
• Increasing consumption of natural gas (+34 percent), renewables including biofuels (+186 percent), and hydro (+8 percent), outweigh declines in coal (-51 percent), oil (-6 percent) and nuclear (-13 percent).
• Natural gas becomes the leading fuel in North American energy consumption around 2023 – increasing from 31 percent of total consumption in 2014 to 39 percent in 2035. Gas consumption grows by 1.4 percent p.a. from 2014 to 2035.
• Liquids consumption declines by 1Mb/d to 22.3Mb/d by 2035, the lowest level since 1996. Oil’s market share declines from 35 percent in 2014 to 31 percent in 2035.
• Fossil fuels account for 83 percent of consumption in 2014 and decline to 78 percent by 2035. Coal’s share in the fuel mix drops from 17 percent in 2014 to just eight percent in 2035.
• Renewables consumption (including biofuels) grows by 5.1 percent p.a. from 2014 to 2035 and their share in the fuel mix increases from four percent in 2014 to 10 percent by 2035.
• The share of energy consumed in power generation rises to 43 percent by 2035 from 41 percent in 2014.
• Rising production of gas (+53 percent) and oil (+37 percent) offset declines in coal (-39 percent).
• North American energy production grows by 1.2 percent p.a. from 2014 to 2035, similar to the global average of 1.3 percent p.a.
• Liquids production increases by 8.6Mb/d to 29.5Mb/d in 2035, to the highest level ever.
• Strong growth in liquids production and declining demand for oil allows North America to become a net oil exporter in 2021.
• Natural gas production increases by 2.1 percent p.a. from 2014 to 2035 to 141Bcf/d. North American shale gas production accounts for 77 percent of global shale gas output in 2035.
• Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by two percent p.a. from 2014 to 2035.
• North American CO2 emissions from energy use decline by 0.4 percent p.a. despite the growth in energy consumption, as renewables and natural gas gain market share.
The report is available here.