Turkey Proposes an Expanded "Grain Initiative" to End Black Sea Strikes
The Turkish government has formulated a draft peace plan that proposes to bring an end to the Russian and Ukrainian maritime strikes in the Black Sea - and relieve the pressure on Turkish shipping interests.
A Turkish diplomat told AFP that Ankara has forwarded the draft MOU to Moscow and Kyiv for consideration; Wednesday's intense strikes suggest that the two sides have not yet adopted the recommendation.
Russia has attacked civilian shipping on and off throughout the war, with the exception of a temporary and partial maritime ceasefire for bulkers carrying Ukrainian grain (the Black Sea Grain Initiative, or "grain corridor"). That Turkish-brokered deal lasted from late 2022 through mid-2023, when Russia unilaterally withdrew from the agreement. Ukraine's mass attacks on Russian-linked civilian vessels are a new development beginning this year, enabled by its "middle strike" drone program and its growing willingness to strike industrial and commercial targets.
Turkish shipping companies are involved in both Russian and Ukrainian trade routes, and Turkish ships and seafarers have suffered disproportionately from the escalating attacks from both sides. In early August, Ankara called for a pause on strikes on merchant vessels in the Black Sea, but the proposal did not gain traction amidst ongoing hostilities.
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The new Turkish draft MOU has something to offer to both Russia and Ukraine: an expanded grain corridor, building off the structure of the initial 2022 maritime ceasefire for bulkers. This version would provide safe passage up the western side of the Black Sea, like last time; in addition, it would have a safety corridor for Russian shipping along the southern and eastern edges. This would include a designated route through Turkish and Georgian territorial seas, the diplomat told AFP.
The independent Turkish Agricultural Diplomacy Group (TTDG) has come up with a more expansive proposal, extending beyond a navigation corridor. It would include a ban on attacks on grain silos and terminals, which are priority targets for Russian long-range strikes; a safe-navigation guarantee for ships carrying agricultural cargoes, enabled with a ship registration and verification program; and a strong Turkish coordinating role for the program, including government-backed war risk insurance for participating vessels.
