Report: After Review, AUKUS Submarine Sales Will Go Forward
The AUKUS submarine pact between the United States, Australia and the UK has survived a Pentagon review, according to Nikkei Asia. After careful scrutiny of the Biden-era agreement, the Trump administration will continue with a planned sale of three attack submarines to the Royal Australian Navy, with the first delivery in 2032. According to Nikkei's sources, the pact will be approved before Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits Washington on October 20. The administration has not formally confirmed the report.
The overall program is worth billions of dollars for Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Newport News, as well as their suppliers and subcontractors in the submarine industrial base. As of 2023, the initial plan called for the U.S. to sell Australia two secondhand Block IV Virginia-class attack submarines from U.S. Navy inventory in 2032 and 2035, plus one more new Block VII hull in 2038. The deal calls for up to five hulls in total, and Australia made the first $500 million down payment on that plan in March 2025. Each new Virginia-class boat is worth $3 billion, and climbing.
In addition to revenue for the defense industrial base, the sale would have value for the U.S. Navy: it would be accompanied by new basing and repair arrangements for U.S. submarines in Western Australia, and a subtle expectation that the Australian subs could be called upon to help in the event of a future conflict.
The downside of the arrangement is in the additional pressure it would create for the U.S. Navy's submarine supply chain. The Virginia-class and Columbia-class sub programs are mission-critical for the U.S. Navy, and the two yards that build these subs - GD Electric Boat and HII Newport News - are already behind schedule and over budget. If the submarine industrial base could not build AUKUS program boats on time, it could slow U.S. Navy fleet growth. Parts availability could also be strained by the addition of the Australian orders, both for new construction and for maintenance - a critical challenge.
In June, the Financial Times reported that the Pentagon had appointed undersecretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby to review the AUKUS program. At the time, the department confirmed that a review was under way "as part of ensuring that this initiative of the [Biden] Administration is aligned with the President’s America First agenda."
A Pentagon spokesperson told the Guardian on Tuesday that the review was still under way and that no decision had been made, contrary to Nikkei's report of a green light. Senior Australian officials also suggested that the review was still in progress, but expressed confidence that it would ultimately be approved.