Little Sign of Movement at Iran's Oil Terminals Amidst Ongoing Talks
Over the course of Monday night, US Central Command conducted limited strikes on Iranian targets that it claimed were a threat to US forces. The targets struck included an anti-ship cruise missile site in the Bandar Abbas area and two small craft preparing to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC-aligned news agency Tasnim claimed that an American MQ-9 drone had been shot down off Iran’s coast during the same time period, without providing evidence. For the moment, it appears that these strikes are not an indication of a wider resumption of military activity, which would scuttle the current ceasefire, but clearly there is a high risk of escalation.
As the negotiations continue without signs of an immediate breakthrough, the US naval blockade appears firmly in place, despite reports that ships are moving within Iranian coastal waters or that single ships may be escaping. The net effect is clear: almost no oil is leaving the Gulf.
This situation is most clearly seen in the anchorages around Kharg Island. For several weeks, the loading quays on the western and eastern sides of the island have been empty, although a Suezmax was seen loading on May 7. On May 21, two tankers were at the eastern loading pier, and about 20 tankers remained empty at anchor close by, to the east and south-east in the lee of the island.
Kharg Island and anchorage on May 21: two loading (red) and 19 tankers anchored off (green) (Sentinel-2/CJRC)
Elsewhere, a number of media sources (likely repeating an assessment put out by one monitor) are suggesting that oil exports have resumed from the Kooh Mobarak Single Point Mooring (SPM), situated in the Jask area – outside the Arabian Gulf, but within the area which the US Navy is blockading. Satellite imagery shows the same 24-meter Aframax at rest in the sea area off the Kooh Mobarak oil storage area between May 19-24, believed to be the Guinea-flagged and OFAC sanctioned Vernon (IMO 9232876). But the Vernon does not appear to be attached to the sole SPM known to be deployed off Kooh Mobarak (the only buoy installed out of a total of three SPMs which had been planned). Rather, the Vernon is lying 1.75 nm due south of this identified SPM. The last time the Vernon is known to have carried a cargo was in mid-February, when she probably discharged via a ship-to-ship transfer in the Singapore Strait area.
that matters most
Get the latest maritime news delivered to your inbox daily.
The position of the Aframax Vernon 1.75nm due south of the Kooh Mobarak SPM on May 24 (Sentinel-2/CJRC)
While open source imagery of the Kooh Mobarak area is of relatively low resolution and infrequent, and so a target may have been missed, the SPM does not appear to have been used to load a tanker since the US-sanctioned Iranian-flagged dark fleet VLCC Dore (IMO 9357717) was seen loading at the SPM on March 7 and 8. Any tanker which managed to load from the Kooh Mobarak SPM would then need to run the US naval blockade.