National Hurricane Center Publishes the Mariner’s Tropical Cyclone Guide

The National Hurricane Center

Published Jul 19, 2023 7:11 PM by The Maritime Executive

[By: The National Hurricane Center]

This new guide replaces the old Mariner’s Guide for Hurricane Awareness in the North Atlantic Basin, which was published in 2000.

The original guide was published in 2000, when National Hurricane Center (NHC) average track forecast errors were more than double today’s average and the forecast only extended to 72 hours. Many important support products, including the forecast cone, wind speed probabilities, and 34-kt time of arrival graphics have been developed over the last two decades. Due to the advances in forecast skill and enhanced support products, some of the old recommendations - including the well-known “1-2-3 Rule” - are no longer endorsed by NHC. This new guide reflects the significant improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting in the past 20 years and covers the updated best practices to avoid these storms.

In addition to these updates, the new guide expands in scope to cover all tropical cyclone basins. Understanding that the maritime industry is a global enterprise, NHC partnered with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center to provide insights outside of NHC’s area of responsibility, which covers the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Oceans. This guide was written by Dylan Flynn, a full-time Meteorologist at NHC and part-time Ship Routing Officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve.

The guide was reviewed by leading experts in tropical meteorology and the maritime industry, including the U.S. Navy and U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, where it will be used as part of their advanced meteorology curriculum.

The Mariner’s Tropical Cyclone Guide is an essential resource for mariners navigating tropical cyclone basins around the world. It is available for free from the NHC website at the following link: nhc.noaa.gov/marinersguide.pdf

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