Ukraine Prepares to Make Do Without Black Sea Shipping

Faced with Russian obstruction of its access to Black Sea shipping, Ukraine is preparing to use a backup plan for grain exports - the inland ports of the Danube River at Izmail, Reni and Ust-Danube.

Sheltered from bombardment or amphibious assault, these once-quiet ports on the river's northernmost branch (the Kiliysky or Chilia estuary) have taken on a outsized role since the start of the invasion. For a period last summer, they provided the only waterborne export route out of Ukraine, and they kept the flow of Ukrainian wheat and corn moving to the outside world. 

In recent months, Russia has been less and less willing to participate in the daily functions of the grain agreement, and it is widely expected that Moscow may withdraw when the initiative comes up for renewal on July 18. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres - who helped broker the deal last year - has expressed concern that Russia may exit, and Ukrainian ambassador at large Olha Trofimtzeva puts the odds of Russian withdrawal at "99.9 percent."

Whether or not Moscow decides to formally end its role in the initiative, it has already brought the grain corridor to a virtual shutdown through noncooperation. Russia's inspection team in Istanbul has slowed cargo movement down to one or two vessels a day (and on some days, none at all).

“With Russia effectively blocking the operation of the grain corridor, we need to be ready to receive almost the entire export volume of the new harvest through the Danube ports,” warned Dmytro Barinov, deputy head of the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority, in a social media post.  

Ukraine may have taken action to increase capacity by dredging an access canal deeper by as much as nine feet over the winter, sparking a minor dispute with the government of Romania. Kyiv denies that the canal was deepened and describes the activity as maintenance dredging

Capacity at the three Danube ports has also been improved thanks to a multimillion-dollar investment by USAID and two Ukrainian partners, Kernel and Nibulon investments. The consortium plans to spend $44 million on upgrades.