Rising Tensions in Yemen Threaten Red Sea Transits

Heavy traffic on the Maritime Security Transit Corridor, June 25 (VesselFinder)

There have been a number of worrying indicators recently that tensions between the Houthis in the north and the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) of Yemen, based in Aden, is rising.

To the great relief of the maritime community, traffic though the Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden was not disrupted in the bout of fighting which ended with the opening of talks between Iran and the United States in Switzerland. Paydari and IRGC hardliners in Iran attempted to persuade the Houthis to resume their attacks on shipping, which would have had devastating impact with Saudi Arabia’s oil exports now shipping out through the Red Sea, and much of the imports of basic essentials required by the Gulf countries now being trucked in after being landed at Jeddah.

But apart from a few missiles and drones fired at Israel, which caused no damage and which were diplomatically ignored, the ceasefire came into effect without the threats made by AbdulMalik Al Houthi and the leader’s ebullient spokesman Brigadier Yahya Al Sare’e being realized. Naval vessel assembling for the Strait of Hormuz monitoring mission have been able to pass through the Bab el Mandeb without disruption.

The general consensus is the Houthi leadership has not wanted to jeopardize progress being made in negotiations with Saudi Arabia, which promise to release substantial financial subsidies that would rescue northern Yemen from its current dire economic situation. A rash of economic protests have broken out in Houthi-controlled areas protesting against hunger and deprivation, emphasizing the need for urgent action to suppress what otherwise could become a threat to the Houthi’s grip on power.

Progress in these talks has evidently not been sufficient for the Houthis, who have now embarked upon an unpopular general mobilization to boost the size of their forces – and to pressure the Saudis with the threat of a resumption of hostilities.

At the same time, the Vice President of the IRG, General Tariq Saleh, has broadcast that he thinks a military clash with the Houthis is inevitable, preparations need to be made, and that compromise with the Houthis (who killed his uncle and tried hard to kill him) is impossible.

Also a worry for the Houthis, the IRG has been consolidating its grip on the area it controls in Yemen, now that the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council has been defused as a separatist force. With some inevitable resistance, semi-autonomous militias have been brought under central administration, with command and control strengthened.

These developments do not threaten an immediate renewal of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. But they increase the risk of this happening, and emphasize that until there is a long-lasting settlement to political divisions in Yemen, that threat remains. With a tenuous peace returning to the Gulf area, the last thing the IMO and the maritime community needs is a resumption of disruption in the Maritime Security Transit Corridor.