Red Sea Escalation: Israel Readies Further Attacks on the Houthis

 

Houthi forces in Yemen have intensified their drone attacks on Israel. On September 7, one of four drones fired at Israel was identified by air defense forces, but not categorized as threat; it hit a terminal building at Ramon International Airport north of Eilat, injuring a civilian. Another three drones in the same wave were shot down over the Egyptian Sinai.

Although Ramon airport was quickly re-opened, this was the first occasion for some time where a Houthi missile or drone has hit a target and caused damage. On September 8, Ramon airport was again targeted, but all three Houthi drones in the wave were detected and destroyed.

Israel always responds to such attacks, and the response on this occasion is likely to be severe, given the scale of the Houthi attack and the propaganda value of its limited success.

Israeli military planners will be aware that the Houthis are now recovering from attacks launched on July 7 against Houthi port facilities in Hodeidah, Salif and Ras Issa. Open source analyst Ben Tzion Macales has examined before-and-after imagery at all three locations. Craters have been filled, and damage has either been repaired or alternative facilities commissioned, such that all three have resumed operations.

Moreover, the complex attack mounted on August 28 by units of both the Israeli Air Force and Navy has not had any noticeable effect as yet either on Houthi policy or operational capability. Prime Minister Ahmed Al Rahawi was killed alongside nine other ministers and two members of the cabinet secretariat. However, these cabinet figures were largely technocrats, and the Houthi political leadership, including the Minister of Defense Mohamed Al Atifi and Chief of the General Staff Muhammad Abd Al Karim Al Ghamari appear to have survived. By dint of their narrow escape, the Houthi leadership is likely to have been emboldened to intensify their campaign against Israel, as has subsequently transpired.

Israel is in the process of mounting its largest-ever military operation in Gaza. At the same time, terrorist attacks in the West Bank have intensified, the situation both in Lebanon and Syria requires constant operational readiness, and Ms Greta Thunberg is about to set off from Tunis with the Global Sumud Flotilla Mission to distract the Israeli Navy off the Gaza coast. Israeli forces are thus over-stretched, but will nevertheless be seeking to launch an operation against the Houthis of a much greater scale – intending that this time, despite the dearth of intelligence, it will succeed in neutralizing the continued missile and drone threat posed by the Houthis. Such an attack is likely to involve both Israeli naval and air forces.