Iranian Naval Forces Still Dispersed at Sea
As has been seen previously, the dispositions of Iranian naval forces seen over the last few days give some indication of the dilemmas now facing Iran’s clerical leadership, and the difficulties they now have to face up to regarding their adversarial position with Israel and the United States. In particular, they appear to be aware that they could be subject to attack again should negotiations break down.
On June 14, two days after the first Israeli attack of the 12-Day War against Iran, most of the principal ships of the regular Iranian Navy (Nedaja) left the Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor, having clearly decided there was now a risk of attack. The Nedaja’s original calculation that they would not be attacked appears, however, to have been a correct assessment, because by the time of the ceasefire, the only casualties the Nedaja suffered were inflicted when an ammunition storage facility was attacked in Bandar Abbas. Although many Nedaja ships were moored in the Bandar Abbas anchorage throughout the war, and were easily identifiable, none were targeted.
Jask Naval Port when busier last September; the port is now empty (Fars News/Iran MoD)
Since then, Nedaja ships have slipped into harbor for quick replenishment stops, but have then left quickly. On June 11, only a single Moudge Class frigate was alongside, plus others known to be under refurbishment and some smaller patrol craft. Outside in the Bandar Abbas anchorage, a second Moudge Class frigate could be identified. But the location of most of the remaining ships of the Nedaja’s Southern Fleet cannot be determined; they have not relocated to either the new naval port at Jask, nor further to the east at the naval port in Chah Bahar, both of which, on July 11, were empty of naval vessels. In summary, most of the fleet appears to be dispersed at sea or sheltering in foreign friendly harbors, still in a defensive posture, seeking to avoid detection.
The IRGC Navy (Nesda) appears to be following a similar course of action. The drone carrier with distinctive angled flight deck Shahid Madhavi (C110-3) is in the Bandar Abbas anchorage, with the catamaran vessel Shahid Nazeri close by; the Shahid Nazeri, whose role has never become apparent, almost never leaves the Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor, possibly because of seaworthiness issues.
Shahid Madhavi (C110-3) anchored off Bandar Abbas on July 11, with the the Shahid Nazeri aft (Sentinel-2/CJRC)
The lack of operational activity is also reflected in the press output of Nedaja spokesmen, who normally provide a steady stream of press releases giving an indication of exercise activity and deployments. This posture suggests that the Nedaja commanders are preserving combat power and are still uncertain of the political situation, waiting for a determination of the way ahead between the competing hard-liner and reformist factions within the political leadership.