Iran Announces "Reopening" of Strait of Hormuz During Lebanon Ceasefire
Having secured U.S. assistance in pressuring Israel to accept a 10-day pause of hostilities against Iranian-allied terrorist group Hezbollah, the government of Iran has announced that it is "completely" reopening the Strait of Hormuz after a bruising six-week closure.
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran," said Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in a statement.
Iran has repeatedly said that the strait is already open to commercial vessels of all non-hostile states, so long as they comply with Iranian-imposed administration; it was not immediately apparent whether Iran had made any material changes to its existing "open" policy after Araghchi's announcement. The foreign minister's statement emphasized that "open" navigation still requires the continued use of the Iranian-approved shipping route at the north end of the strait, which runs through Iran's territorial seas and is under close Iranian supervision. By consenting to use the route as directed, shipowners effectively affirm Iran's de facto management of navigation through the waterway, despite international law.
IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez said Friday that IMO is still verifying the status of freedom of navigation in the strait, including the status of the pre-conflict route through the official traffic separation scheme.
The U.S. naval blockade on Iranian shipping is unchanged. It will remain in place "until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete," President Donald Trump said in a statement, suggesting that negotiations on the status of Iran's nuclear program were now proceeding "very quickly."
On news that the world's busiest oil shipping lane has reopened, WTI plummeted 14 percent and Brent fell by 11 percent, both landing well below $90 per barrel for the first time in weeks. The Dow jumped up by more than two percent at the news.
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The "reopening" depends in part on shipowners' willingness to use the waterway. Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said Friday that 24 ships had used the waterway in the previous 24 hours, a notable uptick, but she cautioned that it was still early to assess the impact of Iran's announcement. "Time to put all the nice headlines to the side . . . let’s focus on how and if this translates into any real changes in Hormuz flows," she said in a social media statement Friday.
"Iran holds the key to the strait, and that reality does not appear likely to change anytime soon," said former Israeli defense intelligence analyst Danny Citrinowicz. "Developments over the past 24 hours have only reinforced and deepened this reality."