Report: The Race is On to Bring Unmanned Combatants to Life
American defense tech consultancy Janus has just published a major review of autonomous naval systems in all global markets. After Ukraine's success with USVs in the Black Sea, interest in unmanned naval warfare is taking off - notably in the United States, with real backing from the U.S. Navy. But America is not alone in seeking an unmanned edge: China is moving towards development of "larger, more capable unmanned surface vessels" with long endurance and heavier payloads - "beyond anything the United States currently has deployed," the consultancy warns.
Janus points to the unveiling of CSSC's JARI-USV-A, or Orca, the world's largest (acknowledged) unmanned surface combatant. The trimaran vessel was revealed to the public at the Zhuhai Airshow in November 2024, and at a displacement of about 300-500 tonnes, it is about three times larger than the U.S. Navy's nearest equivalent, the Sea Hunter. The Orca is outfitted with VLS cells, torpedo tubes, an AESA radar, and a helideck for multipurpose operations. As a shallow-draft trimaran, it would be suitable for littoral operations in the Taiwan Strait, Janus says.
Looking ahead, China's abundant shipyard capacity positions it not just as a leader in modern warship and merchant ship production, but also as a tough competitor in scaled-up unmanned systems. "Chinese commercial shipyards produce more tonnage annually than the rest of the world combined. The structural advantage in production capacity that underlies every U.S. concern about naval competition does not disappear because the vessels are unmanned. It is, if anything, more relevant when the goal is to build dozens or hundreds of vessels rather than a handful of exquisite ones," Janus warns.
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In the U.S., the unmanned-vessel space is crowded with competitors - a good thing for choice, but it is likely to lead to future consolidation, according to Janus. The big names in the startup world - Saronic, Anduril, Blue Water Robotics and others - are being joined by countless smaller companies, and by the defense primes as well. "The Navy will have a sustained number of orders once programs of record materialize, but not at the kind of scale that will keep a dozen companies in business simultaneously," predicts Janus.
The consultancy expects the Navy to begin moving swiftly into production orders under the newly-restructured MUSV "marketplace" concept (formerly MASC). The Navy now wants production-ready products, not development programs, and reliability at sea will be a primary focus, Janus says. This year should be one to watch for the future of the industry. "The structure of the award — how many companies receive contracts, whether it includes one or multiple hull variants, and how the OTA pathway shapes ongoing development will determine the industry landscape for years," the firm says.