Taiwan War Plan Dispute May Be Behind Top Chinese Officers' Dismissal

 

In October, the Maritime Executive summarized what was then known about a purge amongst the senior ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Nine officers of four-star rank were identified as having been purged, including three senior officers from the PLA Navy (PLAN). The dismissals were made public in an announcement made by Chinese Ministry of Defense on October 17.

Our assumption was that the purge had been much deeper, extending from the four-star level down into the lower ranks of the military hierarchy.

That the purge was deeper than publicly acknowledged was confirmed at the Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee, held at the end of October, when the seats of approximately half of the Central Military Commission (CMC) delegates were left vacant. There appears to have been a power struggle within the CMC, likely to have been rooted in disagreements on military approaches to taking over Taiwan - with those dismissed being those who would have had to lead a blunt force invasion of Taiwan with which they disagreed. Of the nine dismissed, seven were either former or current senior officers in the Eastern Theater Command, which being adjacent to Taiwan, would lead on the invasion. President Xi Jinping has consistently pushed a hardline military solution to the 'Taiwan problem', investing particularly in an expansion of the PLAN 's operational capability, whilst a group of military officers opposed to this policy have advocated instead a more nuanced approach.

Many of those dismissed had only recently been promoted. Most were considered to be members of the Fujian clique, a group considered to be closely aligned and loyal to President Xi Jinping personally. Rumors had been circulating about the dismissals since April.

The official announcement of the nine dismissals and expulsions from the CPC attributed the removals to disciplinary violations and allegations of corruption, an implausibly generic explanation given the spread of posts of those purged. Subsequently in the press, the nine were accused of disloyalty to the CPC. This gave weight to a more logical explanation: that those dismissed - mostly concerned with political work within the PLA - were the leading representatives of a faction within the CPC which had begun to have misgivings about the political direction of the CMC and CPC Chairman, President Xi Jinping

Of the nine four-star officers dismissed, Admiral Miao Hua had been head of the CMC's Political Work Department, the organization within the PLA responsible for upholding conformity to CPC doctrine. This activity is synonymous with oversight of personal loyalty to the personality of President XI and his particular interpretation of CPC ideology. Dismissed alongside him was Admiral Yuan Huazhi, a marine officer, until recently head of the PLAN Political Works Department. Admiral Wang Houbin was dismissed from his post as commander of the PLA Rocket Force, but he had been the PLAN Deputy Commander from 2019-23 and had held a senior operational post previously in the East Sea Fleet.

The most senior officer dismissed was CMC Vice Chairman General He Weidong, who had been a member of the 24-strong Politburo and is also believed to have been the lead strategic planner for operations against Taiwan. General He Hongjun, deputy head of the CMC Political Work Department was unusually a senior officer from Tibet, but managed to commit suicide before his dismissal was announced. Two other senior officers had been holding operational posts, General Wang Chunning in command of the PLA’s Armed Police, and - perhaps the casualty of greatest significance - Lieutenant General Lin Xiangyang, commander of the Eastern Theater.

Additional Eastern Theater Command officers now suspected of being under investigation or who have already been covertly dismissed include Vice Admiral Wang Zhongcai, commander of the East Seas Fleet, and Major General Ding Laifu, commander of the 73rd Army Group, one of three such ground force formations within the command.

Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, PLAN Chief of Staff, was apparently purged in June. General Wang Haijiang, commander of the land-locked Western Theater Command, was apparently dismissed in March. There have been additional senior dismissals in the PLA Ground Forces, Air Forces and Rocket Forces.

Despite these upheavals and differences of opinion within and between the political and military high command over approaches to Taiwan, there has been no evident scaling back of aggressive military operations, around either Taiwan or in the Nine Dashed Line waters of the South China Sea claimed by China.

The dismissals will have caused disruption in the chain of command, and a loss of the expertise and knowledge amongst those intimately involved in planning operations against Taiwan. Certainly, PLAN officers will be nervous and less inclined to take the initiative or engage in critical thinking. But this handicap has not yet manifested itself in any noticeable reduction in PLAN operational effectiveness.