US Central Command Outlines Iranian Blockade Plan

U.S. Central Command has outlined its scheme for the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which it says will come into force at 18.00 local time in the Gulf on Monday, April 13.

The blockade is to be enforced “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas,” and covers ports and areas both within the Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman.

Ships proceeding to or from non-Iranian ports will not be interdicted. This means that Omani domestic traffic between the Musandam and the rest of Oman will not be affected. Nor will non-Iranian vessels that decide they now wish to risk moving through the Gulf to and from non-Iranian ports can do so freely, once they have confidence that it is safe to do so.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) will be issuing Notices to Mariners before the commencement of the scheme, detailing routes and procedures to be followed. Mariners have been advised to contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.

Clearly, U.S. naval forces undertaking the blockade could be subject to threats from Iranian forces in the form of drone or missile attack. With most surface combatants of the Iranian and IRGC navies already disabled, the surface threat is likely to come from fast attack craft and speed boats. A capability to either interdict or respond to all such attacks will be an integral part of the CENTCOM plan. However, it does not appear as if the implementation of the blockade is to coincide with a general resumption of air warfare against Iran, although there is a risk of a resumption of wide-scale attacks should the U.S. response to a particular incident widen into more general conflict.

There is no particular need for U.S. intercept operations to be carried out within range of Iranian attack systems, and it would be safer, with less danger of escalation, for such operations to be carried out deeper into the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. There is likely to be some plan to push oil confiscated or interdicted at sea back into the market, thereby maintaining supply, without, of course, the Iranians benefiting financially.

Expected to proceed hand-in-hand with the blockade operation, but not necessarily immediately, will be the roll-out of a mine clearance operation in the Strait.

The Iranian response to the CENTCOM blockade is fairly predictable. Rather than attempting to respond to each and every incident at sea, for which they now, in any case, lack sufficient long-range capability, the Iranians are likely to retaliate by widening their attacks on infrastructure targets in Gulf Countries. The GCC countries will be expecting such attacks, which the more sanguine will regard as the price that must be paid for a reopening of the waterway on which their economies critically depend. Besides preparing for the Iranian counter-attack, Gulf states may be reaching the limits of the restraint they have so far exercised, and may well have plans of their own on how to respond to any increased Iranian aggression.