Geopolitics Has Moved From the Margins to the Engine Room of Shipping
For much of its modern history, the maritime industry treated geopolitics as background noise. Today, that is no longer possible. Political instability is now shaping day-to-day operational decisions, cost structures and risk exposure across global shipping.
The most visible impact has been route disruption. Vessels diverted away from key corridors are burning more fuel and spending longer at sea, pushing operating costs sharply higher. Insurance premiums have followed the same trajectory. At the same time, investment in decarbonization is being delayed, not because the industry has lost interest, but because uncertainty has made long-term commitments harder to justify. The green transition is not off course, but it is being slowed by events well beyond the industry’s control.
Trade policy has added another layer of instability. Tariffs and restrictions have distorted cargo flows and reduced predictability in markets that depend on scale and efficiency. Sanctions, while politically necessary, have also had unintended consequences. The growth of the shadow fleet is not a marginal issue; it reflects a system struggling to enforce its own rules. Ships operating outside regulatory oversight, without proper insurance or compliance, pose a direct threat to safety at sea and to the marine environment.
The war in Ukraine has reinforced how quickly geopolitical conflict can spill into maritime operations. Beyond the immediate disruption to trade and energy routes, shipping has seen a marked increase in cyberattacks. Many systems now critical to vessel operations and port infrastructure were never designed to operate in a persistent hostile digital environment. That vulnerability is being exposed in real time.
Taken together, these pressures have produced a freight market characterized by volatility rather than cycles. Supply chains are repeatedly disrupted, delays have become routine and risk is harder to price. This is not a temporary phase; it is the operating environment the industry must now assume as normal.
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In this context, resilience cannot be an abstract concept. Shipping companies need greater contractual flexibility, stronger contingency planning and a far more disciplined approach to scenario analysis. Treating geopolitics as a peripheral concern may once have been pragmatic. In today’s market, it is reckless.
Irene Rosberg is Program Director of the Blue MBA Association at the Copenhagen School of Business.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.