Syria's New Rulers May Block Russia From Evacuating Naval Base

 

Ukraine's military intelligence agency claims that Russia is encountering difficulties in gaining access to its longtime naval base in Tartus, where it appears to have staged large quantities of military equipment for outward shipment. One of the Russian naval vessels stuck offshore Syria, the amphib Alexander Otrakovsky, has now developed technical issues with its water desalination plant and with leaking fuel tanks - but it cannot enter port for repairs, according to Ukraine's HUR.

In early December, U.S.-designated terror group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began an offensive against the government forces of dictator Bashar al-Assad, the latest in a long series of battles in Syria's 13-year civil war. This time, Assad's forces rapidly collapsed under pressure, and his Russian backers retreated ahead of the advancing rebels. As HTS seized the capital city of Damascus, the Russian military pulled back and concentrated its assets in Tartus and Latakia, where Russia has operated military bases since the Soviet era. 

As an apparent precautionary measure, the Russian Navy's Mediterranean Flotilla sortied from Tartus and took up station off the coast, where it has remained since. Satellite imagery confirms that the Russian berths in the port are empty of seagoing vessels, and the quaysides have filled up with Russian trucks and equipment. 

The timeline for Russia to regain access and retrieve that equipment appears uncertain, according to the HUR. The spy agency reports that Russian Rear Adm. Valery Vladimirovich Varfolomeyev attempted to negotiate with HTS on an agreement for port access on January 9, but was rebuffed.

While the Ukrainian report could not be immediately verified, three Russian military cargo ships are loitering in the area, along with the tank landing ships Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky. The landing ships are often used to augment Russian logistics capabilities (in addition to their amphibious assault role). None of these vessels have re-entered port.

Depending upon the degree of access Russia eventually negotiates, at least some of the gear may end up being left behind. Pro-Ukraine news service Euromaidan reports that Russian troops have orders to burn any non-operational equipment on the ground if it cannot be evacuated, in order to prevent it from falling into HTS' hands.